[Vnbiz] Fwd: NEWS ALERT: Asia must attract clean energy investments, ADB President says; New ADB magazine to increase awareness of Asia’s development challenges

Wed May 7 08:22:16 PDT 2008

Hey Folks:

FYI, this year they expect there to be a GLUT of solar panels due to the
over-investment in productive capacity inSolar in China this year relative
to demand, so that means, they are predicting them to be CHEAP this year.
Solar panels that is.  THis points to the question Hoanh asked in another
question, how could the NA limit GDP growth, well they can try to rein in
loans, limit investment in infrastructure, limit the FDI they accept, and
all of these would be government sanctions on growth (assuming they worked).

A good way to look at GDP growth is to look at what percentage of GDP is
consumption, what percentage is Export, and what percentage is public (or
private domestic company) development (in productive capacity from loans,
infrastructure, etc), with that understood then it is fairly easy to target
GDP growth (want more growth, spend more on infrastructure, encourage banks
to lend more, lower interest rates, bank caps, print more money, attract
more FOREX and print more of your own currency against it, put it in
your the banking system, and voila....GDP growth).  Question is, for those
that go toward private sector investment in productive capacity, what
percentage would shake-out were there a down-turn.  This is why the
continuous fear of over-heating, not simply that an economy has
over-invested, yet over-invested (at inflationary prices), and created such
competition that there is eventual need of a shake-out, and a righting of
the ship, which means bankruptcy for those comapnies that started to compete
in highly competitive industries, or serious problems for the banking
system, or both (most likley both)..

Sanity in Development

Craig

So, it might be, unless demand spikes, that there will be a bunch of
companies in China competing for a limited market for solar, which means if
you have been thinking about doing it, 2008 might be your year (they might
be dumping on the market, just to get cash-flow to pay their loans back to
the banks, GOd only knows where true NPL's are at this point, certainly
governments don't like to tell).   The market is a fickle thing, this could
be a time for a buy.

Craig

On Tue, May 6, 2008 at 10:14 PM, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com> wrote:

> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>
>
> Dear sis. Jackie,
>
> What does a typical do-it-yourself solar kit do?  And how much does it cost
> now?
>
> Hoanh
>
> On Sun, May 4, 2008 at 7:25 PM, Jackie Nelson <ephemeropterae at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sun, May 4, 2008 at 6:55 PM, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> I have serious problem with biofuel.  Here is an excerpt from a Time
>>> article entitled "The Clean Energy cam"  about biofuel and how it is
>>> damaging the earth.
>>> http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1725975,00.html
>>>
>>
>> Absolutely.   Biofuels that rely on fossil fuel farming techniques have
>> long been discredited by the green community.  There are some interesting
>> developments, such as ALGAculture, but we have a ways to go.  USA's Farm and
>> Energy Bills are extremely short-sighted in this regard.
>>
>>
>>>
>>> Renewable fuels has become one of those motherhood-and-apple-pie
>>> catchphrases, as unobjectionable as the troops or the middle class.
>>>
>>
>> Mom and apple pie?  Hardly.  There's a term for feel good, but misguided
>> attempts to 'go green' = <corporate> greenwashing.
>>
>>
>>>
>>> I think dams provided the cleanest energy source, but why every time
>>> someone builds a dam, the envrionmentalists are up in arms?
>>>
>>
>> Dams damage riparian ecosystems, and when large rivers are dammed, it
>> affects those downstream too.  Yes, hydro is 'clean' as far as carbon
>> though.  In my neck of the woods, micro hydro is popular.  Also small
>> wind---you use the natural capital you have.  Since we are among the
>> windiest places in USA, wind makes sense.  Lots of folks have small streams
>> as well, which could be another diversification of energy needs.
>> A local physician started a LLC to harness wind to sell to our electricity
>> cooperative.  He fought neighbors <worried about noise> and realtors <feared
>> ruining the viewshed> and gave up due to legal expenses.
>>
>>
>>
>>> Solar energy is still too expensive to pursue.
>>>
>>
>> Prices are coming down fast as economies of scale kick in.... most folks
>> here can put up do it yourself type kits.  The big excitement though, is
>> large scale solar...perhaps the most promising form of power in my opinion.
>>
>>
>>
>>> How about nuclear energy?
>>>
>>
>> Not crazy about the idea, but with our voracious appetites for energy, I
>> don't know how to meet demand at this time without adding nuclear to our
>> energy portfolio.  The waste issue is extremely problematic...also, nuclear
>> takes a long time to get up and running.  As well, nuclear requires enormous
>> amounts of water, but my understanding is that newer designs require less
>> water.  Also, uranium <?> is a limited resource as well.
>>
>>>
>>> Have a great day!
>>>
>>
>> You too!   And all brothers and sisters here!
>> The great hope, I believe, especially for Viet Nam and much of USA is
>> solar...large scale solar with megawatt capability.  Look at Cuba -- went
>> through an almost overnight energy fast after the fall of USSR.
>> The people adapted, using solar, and many alternatives.
>> Each locality should use the natural capital it has, whether wind, solar,
>> tidal, geothermal, etc.  Ideally, the local energy company would provide
>> technical assistance for start up.  Tax incentives to go thriftier, etc.
>> But we are not there yet, and until the energy paradigm is changed, we will
>> require petrol for the transition.
>>
>> Thanks,
>> Jackie
>> Anything but coal :-)
>>
>
>
> --
> Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
> Washington DC
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