[Vnbiz] Not on Vietnam but may shed light on the inflation debate....a readers rsponse from

[Craig Stevenson]

sorry last, EU = Economic Union (not simply monetary and more than customs
or common market but not quite political although trying)

On Wed, Mar 12, 2008 at 10:59 PM, Craig Stevenson <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Dear HPP and All:
>
> I agree entrepreneurship, private ownership and motivation need be
> supported, encouraged, enabled and facilitated. It is the only way to stem
> the inequalities that always result in upheavel.  I believe I have a fair
> understanding of globaliation but not simply its economic factors.
> Economists do view globalization as the growing integration and interdepence
> of markets, nations and people.  Yet, I belive that there is some widespread
> consensus that the emergence, and ongoing proliferation of FTA's, signal
> alteration to the commonly held believe that the "zillion pieces" are
> trending toward short to medium term continuation of a model that has been
> commonly accepted as occuring and moving forward.  Look to some Japanese and
> South Korean alteration of policies which previously
> emphasized multi-lateral trade expansion infavor of FTA's after NAFTA.  On a
> side note I realize that the EU is a monetary union, with at least some
> French and other EU elites hoping for a Political Union, rather than an FTA.
>
> As any good Entrepreneur must measure commonly accepted belief with a
> healthy dose of looking forward, foresight. So must any concerned citizen of
> the world and leaders of nations.  In that looking forward we need to
> consider a multitude of issues, as many of those zillion pieces that is
> possible.  In doing that I am afraid that I, at least for one, do not see
> things as all, even most, or perhaps, as you do.
>
> It is the analyst in me who can not help but see the change around the
> corner.  I am not sure it will be for the better but am sure that the world
> is gravely unstable.  From resource to climate, from inequality of wealth to
> stacking the cards toward global imbalances, all is pointing to major
> paradigm shifts that portend something very different, at least in my mind,
> then that which you seem to trust.  In a world of "zillions of pieces" the
> sheer inability of man to make equitable sense and control of those pieces
> trends the world toward familiar outcomes.  As globalization started with
> some ancient man so will the world resort to old responses and the world has
> terrible sustainability problems which will .  Some may say that technology,
> transportation and the proliferation of ICTs prevent such possibility,
> others may see that they simply have the ability in inflame the very
> challenging problems we face.  At the end of the day I see paradigm shifts
> where responses alter directions.
>
> Craig
>  On Wed, Mar 12, 2008 at 5:43 PM, <Hong-Phong_Pho at ita.doc.gov> wrote:
>
> > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> >
> >
> >
> > Dear Craig:
> > Thanks for posting the links.
> > Think of globalization as a zillion-piece puzzle that's not static (more
> > like a three-D movie), and integration as on on-going process.  The WTO is
> > but an evolving framework with basic rules to try to manage all the flying
> > pieces on the economic front.  Globalization has been taking place since
> > people from one tribe started to cross geographic boundaries to interact
> > with others, whether or not peacefully. Setting up rules helps facilitate
> > the interactions to make them more predictable and productive.  It's far
> > from creating a single world market.  Even FTA are different from the
> > integrated markets  like the EU.  I think of them as working on different
> > corners of the puzzle that's part of the whole, just at higher "resolution".
> >  Trading blocks proliferation doesn't necessarily contradict the WTO common
> > denominator.
> > Greed is when the desire to have your own piece of the pie is taken to
> > extreme, couple with the willingness to crush the desires and needs of
> > others to have your way.  Greed can and must be regulated, not banned.  But
> > without the fire of entrepreneurship and the motivation of private
> > ownership, things just don't seem to work very well economically for most
> > people in society (except for the very few at the top whose greed is
> > unregulated).
> > Best,  HPP
> >
> >
> >
> >   *"Craig Stevenson" <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com>*
> > Sent by: vnbiz-bounces at mail.saigon.com
> >
> > 03/11/2008 03:39 AM
> >    Please respond to
> > vnbiz at vietlinks.net
> >
> >      To
> > vnbiz at vietlinks.net  cc
> >   Subject
> > Re: [Vnbiz] Not on Vietnam but may shed light on the inflation
> >  debate....a readers rsponse from
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> >
> > Dear Phong:
> >
> > I will post the links to the podcasts as soon as I have found them and
> > you can review the perspectives of those more knowledgeable than me.  In
> > addition to the points on Silica, they discuss options and the absolute
> > futility of one single, even that all possible options well planned might
> > not even being enough, certainly isn't enough at current levels of
> > technology.  Transmission of energy is the key .
> >
> > One major question is that if the world is moving toward free markets
> > and globalization is creating a single world market then why has there been
> > a proliferation of regional trading blocs?
> >
> > (certainly different forms and levels of integration, but nonetheless is
> > more the trend where the WTO is but a baseline of trade integration and even
> > an FTA a higher level of commitment to speak nothing of customs union,
> > common markets, and monetary unions)
> > EU
> > NAFTA
> > ASEAN
> > Mercosur
> > GCC
> >
> >
> > WTO = the lowest common denominator and not nearly as special a
> > relationship as those listed above
> > etc....
> >
> > Might it be that the vision of market supremacy has changed will change
> > where there is such intervention in markets.  Might it not be better were
> > development, and primacy of trade relations be conducted on a bio-regional
> > scale?
> >
> > These are the questions which I believe will rise in importance as we
> > move forward.  If there is one-thing that I have learned over the years it
> > is that common consensus rarely results in actual manifestation of that
> > conceded; ie things rarely turn out to be as expected.  Wild Cards,
> > Alternative Futures, an human expectations all shape what is coming.  Excuse
> > me for believing my perspective right, but I have been proved right too many
> > times over the last 15 years.  As always, perhaps, my persepctive is wrong,
> > I just don't think so and hear few arguments that convince me otherwise.
> >  Finally, I do not think greed is the admirable quality (that should be)
> > driving the development of man.
> >
> > Craig
> >
> >
> >
> > On Mon, Mar 10, 2008 at 8:22 PM, <*Hong-Phong_Pho at ita.doc.gov*<Hong-Phong_Pho at ita.doc.gov>>
> > wrote:
> > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> >
> >
> >
> > Dear anh Craig:
> > It goes without saying that governments will try to intervene, some more
> > than others, some only as necessary, others much more than necessary.
> > Between the two extremes of command and market economy, I think we can
> > generally agree and which one works better at generating wealth.  As to
> > distribution, it's academic if all you have to spread around is poverty.
> >  Vietnam is still recovering from economic commandism, that's why I try to
> > steer clear of any suggestion to have the government engaged in such direct
> > interference.  I am not oblivious to pressures you mentioned.  Vietnam is
> > already restricting rice exports to help ensure food security. Subsidize
> > rice prices if you have to by discharging reserves.  Subsidizing fertilizers
> > for farmers as necessary.
> > Dear anh Hoanh:
> > So much for "All private companies have to do the same thing to "pass-on
> > the saving" to the customers if they want to stay in business for a long
> > time."?
> > So why won't the U.S. government just take all the "windfall" profits
> > from the U.S. oil companies and give U.S. consumers a break on gas
> > price?
> > Instead, between local and federal taxes, gas prices are even higher
> > than charged by the oil companies.
> > You talk about US still subsidizing oil companies.  Do you know what
> > these subsidies are for and why they are in place?
> > Yes, supply and demand still work, even in this environment.  Oil
> > companies took big risks for big returns.
> > Best,  HPP
> >
> > P.S.  Insolation favors countries closer to the equator.  Silica is
> > sand, among the most abundant resource on earth.  Scientifically, we are not
> > there yet for photovoltaics, so solar will have to be one a among a number
> > of alternative energy solution.  HPP
> >
> >
> >   *"Tran Dinh Hoanh" <**tdhoanh at gmail.com* <tdhoanh at gmail.com>*>*
> > Sent by: *vnbiz-bounces at mail.saigon.com* <vnbiz-bounces at mail.saigon.com>
> >
> > 03/09/2008 09:39 PM
> >   Please respond to*
> > **vnbiz at vietlinks.net* <vnbiz at vietlinks.net>
> >
> >
> >   To
> > *vnbiz at vietlinks.net* <vnbiz at vietlinks.net>  cc
> >   Subject
> > Re: [Vnbiz] Not on Vietnam but may shed light on the inflation
> >  debate....a readers rsponse from
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> >
> > Dear anh Craig & CACC,
> >
> > What you said about alternating price support and
> > alternative-energy-research depending on economic conditions makes good
> > sense.  We ought to think about that seriously.  The world is so depending
> > on oil that world politics is so messed up due to oil.  Eventually we will
> > run out of oil anyway.  I think the world will be much more balanced if
> > solar energy becomes a main source of energy.  It will be a great equalizer,
> > just like Internet, because, with little variation here and there,  the sun
> > very much shines equally on all countries.
> >
> > BTW, I wonder if there is any alternative energy research currently in
> > Vietnam?   Does anyone know the answer?
> >
> > Have a great day!
> >
> > Hoanh
> >
> > On Sat, Mar 8, 2008 at 1:40 AM, Craig Stevenson <*
> > cstevenson2000 at gmail.com* <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> >
> >
> > Dear CACC:
> >
> > Frankly, aren't oil reserves for VN nearing elimination.  Without
> > resolution of the Spratley's (Sorry I do not know the VN name) crucial to
> > any real further discussion of this.  Really, despite high costs at present
> > shouldn't we be discussing taxes to be used for other generation of enrgy
> > resources, alternatives.  Subsidy might lessen the blow to the consumer
> > which is important to offset wage increase demands and perhaps to subsidize
> > fertilizer to farmers etc to offset domestically produced food costs for the
> > same reason.  Any talk of subsidy should also speak of taxes in the same
> > manner marked to prices in the market.  Perhaps, oil rises and subsidies
> > kick into place, oil falls and subsidies lessen or taxes kick in at certain
> > prices which go earmarked to an energy indepndence fund, etc...
> >
> > Phong, in all reality, wouldn't current events seem to imply that the
> > concept that "markets rule and should rule" is undermined to the very large
> > imbalances in a world economy that isn't actually, fully dependent upon
> > market forces.  All intervene in every market to varying degrees.  Further,
> > it might be that the curent "market-supremacy model", built for/from
> > political expediency in an era of the cold war, that currently
> > philosophically reigns, might not actually be relevant, or lasting, in a
> > world where, despite how we (would, might) prefer it be, doesn't exist in
> > reality.  A peg distorts the market, as does a tax, as does financial
> > globalization, inequality, interdependence, and speculation unfortunately.
> >  Might it not be that neither Hayak nor Keynes is right.  Of course neither
> > should VN reutrn to a command economy, especially after the distribution of
> > wealth effects of late, nor should it blindly follow a market rules
> > philosophy. I believe the world misunderstands  the nature (and certainly
> > misjudges the implications) of the fundamental shifts that could occur quite
> > quickly do to global imbalances and I guarentee possible movement doesn't
> > likely tend toward free market liberalism.
> >
> > Craig
> > On Sat, Mar 8, 2008 at 12:39 AM, Tran Dinh Hoanh <*tdhoanh at gmail.com*<tdhoanh at gmail.com>>
> > wrote:
> > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> >
> >
> > Dear brother Phong,
> >
> > Oil will never be a "market economy."  At least not in our lifetime.
> >  Oil is a global monopoly.  Oil price is a monopoly price determined by
> > OPEC.  So the price of oil is not really ruled by supply and demand of a
> > market economy.
> >
> > That is why in a year when the American citizens paid exhorbitant prices
> > for gasoline and gas price rose continuously (and still rising as of now),
> > Exxon had a 41-billion-USD profits in 2007, the largest profit in the US
> > corporate history.  Four largest oil companies had more than 100 billion USD
> > of profit in 2007.   *
> > http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/economy/2008/02/01/exxons-profits-measuring-a-record-windfall.html
> > *<http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/economy/2008/02/01/exxons-profits-measuring-a-record-windfall.html>
> >
> > And the US government is STILL subsididing US oil companies.
> >
> > Vietnam oil is controlled by two monopoly arms in import and export.
> >  And the monopolies won't go away anytime soon because of the important role
> > of oil in the national security and economy and becasue the monopolistic
> > nature of the global oil industry.
> >
> > So any talk about "market economy" and the law of supply and demand in
> > oil is unrealistic.   It is "supply and demand" in a distorted and
> > monopolistic environment.  What we need to do is to understand the
> > monopolistic character of oil industry to structure production, distribution
> > and pricing in a way that is fair and good for citizens and the national
> > economy, and not to allow absurd things happen like in the US--the
> > government subsidizing oil companies, and in a year when citizens pay rapid
> > price increases, oil companies post record windfall profits.
> >
> > Have a great day!
> >
> > Hoanh
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
> > Washington DC _______________________________________________
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