[Vnbiz] Not on Vietnam but may shed light on the inflation debate....a readers rsponse from
Hong-Phong_Pho at ita.doc.gov
Hong-Phong_Pho at ita.doc.gov
Wed Mar 12 14:43:12 PDT 2008
Dear Craig:
Thanks for posting the links.
Think of globalization as a zillion-piece puzzle that's not static (more
like a three-D movie), and integration as on on-going process. The WTO is
but an evolving framework with basic rules to try to manage all the flying
pieces on the economic front. Globalization has been taking place since
people from one tribe started to cross geographic boundaries to interact
with others, whether or not peacefully. Setting up rules helps facilitate
the interactions to make them more predictable and productive. It's far
from creating a single world market. Even FTA are different from the
integrated markets like the EU. I think of them as working on different
corners of the puzzle that's part of the whole, just at higher
"resolution". Trading blocks proliferation doesn't necessarily contradict
the WTO common denominator.
Greed is when the desire to have your own piece of the pie is taken to
extreme, couple with the willingness to crush the desires and needs of
others to have your way. Greed can and must be regulated, not banned. But
without the fire of entrepreneurship and the motivation of private
ownership, things just don't seem to work very well economically for most
people in society (except for the very few at the top whose greed is
unregulated).
Best, HPP
"Craig Stevenson" <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com>
Sent by: vnbiz-bounces at mail.saigon.com
03/11/2008 03:39 AM
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Re: [Vnbiz] Not on Vietnam but may shed light on the inflation debate....a
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[ Vietnam Business Forum ]
Dear Phong:
I will post the links to the podcasts as soon as I have found them and you
can review the perspectives of those more knowledgeable than me. In
addition to the points on Silica, they discuss options and the absolute
futility of one single, even that all possible options well planned might
not even being enough, certainly isn't enough at current levels of
technology. Transmission of energy is the key .
One major question is that if the world is moving toward free markets and
globalization is creating a single world market then why has there been a
proliferation of regional trading blocs?
(certainly different forms and levels of integration, but nonetheless is
more the trend where the WTO is but a baseline of trade integration and
even an FTA a higher level of commitment to speak nothing of customs
union, common markets, and monetary unions)
EU
NAFTA
ASEAN
Mercosur
GCC
WTO = the lowest common denominator and not nearly as special a
relationship as those listed above
etc....
Might it be that the vision of market supremacy has changed will change
where there is such intervention in markets. Might it not be better were
development, and primacy of trade relations be conducted on a bio-regional
scale?
These are the questions which I believe will rise in importance as we move
forward. If there is one-thing that I have learned over the years it is
that common consensus rarely results in actual manifestation of that
conceded; ie things rarely turn out to be as expected. Wild Cards,
Alternative Futures, an human expectations all shape what is coming.
Excuse me for believing my perspective right, but I have been proved right
too many times over the last 15 years. As always, perhaps, my persepctive
is wrong, I just don't think so and hear few arguments that convince me
otherwise. Finally, I do not think greed is the admirable quality (that
should be) driving the development of man.
Craig
On Mon, Mar 10, 2008 at 8:22 PM, <Hong-Phong_Pho at ita.doc.gov> wrote:
[ Vietnam Business Forum ]
Dear anh Craig:
It goes without saying that governments will try to intervene, some more
than others, some only as necessary, others much more than necessary.
Between the two extremes of command and market economy, I think we can
generally agree and which one works better at generating wealth. As to
distribution, it's academic if all you have to spread around is poverty.
Vietnam is still recovering from economic commandism, that's why I try to
steer clear of any suggestion to have the government engaged in such
direct interference. I am not oblivious to pressures you mentioned.
Vietnam is already restricting rice exports to help ensure food security.
Subsidize rice prices if you have to by discharging reserves. Subsidizing
fertilizers for farmers as necessary.
Dear anh Hoanh:
So much for "All private companies have to do the same thing to "pass-on
the saving" to the customers if they want to stay in business for a long
time."?
So why won't the U.S. government just take all the "windfall" profits from
the U.S. oil companies and give U.S. consumers a break on gas price?
Instead, between local and federal taxes, gas prices are even higher than
charged by the oil companies.
You talk about US still subsidizing oil companies. Do you know what these
subsidies are for and why they are in place?
Yes, supply and demand still work, even in this environment. Oil
companies took big risks for big returns.
Best, HPP
P.S. Insolation favors countries closer to the equator. Silica is sand,
among the most abundant resource on earth. Scientifically, we are not
there yet for photovoltaics, so solar will have to be one a among a number
of alternative energy solution. HPP
"Tran Dinh Hoanh" <tdhoanh at gmail.com>
Sent by: vnbiz-bounces at mail.saigon.com
03/09/2008 09:39 PM
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Re: [Vnbiz] Not on Vietnam but may shed light on the inflation debate....a
readers rsponse from
[ Vietnam Business Forum ]
Dear anh Craig & CACC,
What you said about alternating price support and
alternative-energy-research depending on economic conditions makes good
sense. We ought to think about that seriously. The world is so depending
on oil that world politics is so messed up due to oil. Eventually we will
run out of oil anyway. I think the world will be much more balanced if
solar energy becomes a main source of energy. It will be a great
equalizer, just like Internet, because, with little variation here and
there, the sun very much shines equally on all countries.
BTW, I wonder if there is any alternative energy research currently in
Vietnam? Does anyone know the answer?
Have a great day!
Hoanh
On Sat, Mar 8, 2008 at 1:40 AM, Craig Stevenson <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com>
wrote:
[ Vietnam Business Forum ]
Dear CACC:
Frankly, aren't oil reserves for VN nearing elimination. Without
resolution of the Spratley's (Sorry I do not know the VN name) crucial to
any real further discussion of this. Really, despite high costs at
present shouldn't we be discussing taxes to be used for other generation
of enrgy resources, alternatives. Subsidy might lessen the blow to the
consumer which is important to offset wage increase demands and perhaps to
subsidize fertilizer to farmers etc to offset domestically produced food
costs for the same reason. Any talk of subsidy should also speak of taxes
in the same manner marked to prices in the market. Perhaps, oil rises and
subsidies kick into place, oil falls and subsidies lessen or taxes kick in
at certain prices which go earmarked to an energy indepndence fund, etc...
Phong, in all reality, wouldn't current events seem to imply that the
concept that "markets rule and should rule" is undermined to the very
large imbalances in a world economy that isn't actually, fully dependent
upon market forces. All intervene in every market to varying degrees.
Further, it might be that the curent "market-supremacy model", built
for/from political expediency in an era of the cold war, that currently
philosophically reigns, might not actually be relevant, or lasting, in a
world where, despite how we (would, might) prefer it be, doesn't exist in
reality. A peg distorts the market, as does a tax, as does financial
globalization, inequality, interdependence, and speculation unfortunately.
Might it not be that neither Hayak nor Keynes is right. Of course
neither should VN reutrn to a command economy, especially after the
distribution of wealth effects of late, nor should it blindly follow a
market rules philosophy. I believe the world misunderstands the nature
(and certainly misjudges the implications) of the fundamental shifts that
could occur quite quickly do to global imbalances and I guarentee possible
movement doesn't likely tend toward free market liberalism.
Craig
On Sat, Mar 8, 2008 at 12:39 AM, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com>
wrote:
[ Vietnam Business Forum ]
Dear brother Phong,
Oil will never be a "market economy." At least not in our lifetime. Oil
is a global monopoly. Oil price is a monopoly price determined by OPEC.
So the price of oil is not really ruled by supply and demand of a market
economy.
That is why in a year when the American citizens paid exhorbitant prices
for gasoline and gas price rose continuously (and still rising as of now),
Exxon had a 41-billion-USD profits in 2007, the largest profit in the US
corporate history. Four largest oil companies had more than 100 billion
USD of profit in 2007.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/economy/2008/02/01/exxons-profits-measuring-a-record-windfall.html
And the US government is STILL subsididing US oil companies.
Vietnam oil is controlled by two monopoly arms in import and export. And
the monopolies won't go away anytime soon because of the important role of
oil in the national security and economy and becasue the monopolistic
nature of the global oil industry.
So any talk about "market economy" and the law of supply and demand in oil
is unrealistic. It is "supply and demand" in a distorted and
monopolistic environment. What we need to do is to understand the
monopolistic character of oil industry to structure production,
distribution and pricing in a way that is fair and good for citizens and
the national economy, and not to allow absurd things happen like in the
US--the government subsidizing oil companies, and in a year when citizens
pay rapid price increases, oil companies post record windfall profits.
Have a great day!
Hoanh
--
Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
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