[Vnbiz] Some Possibilities to Ponder from an Indian "think tank", the Strategic Foresight Group's "Global Security and Economy" report, 2008

Wed Mar 12 10:10:37 PDT 2008

This report identifies emerging issues that in our view will have an impact
on global security and economy during the next decade. The objective of the
report is not to anticipate developments in all sectors and all
geographies. Rather our effort is to identify the most important issues
across sectors and geographies that will influence the period approximately
from 2011 to 2020.

The report builds on similar efforts made by other institutions. Our team
undertook a survey of surveys to understand emerging issues identified by
credible institutions around the world, using a variety of methods including
workshops, conferences, polls, and in-house research. In addition, we took
into account signals of change noticed by us in the course of our
interactions around the world. We analysed findings from our external and
internal search efforts to focus on issues that will most significantly
impact our life in the foreseeable future.

While we have tried to rank the identified issues in terms of their impact
and probability, to some extent such ranking is artificial. All issues are
so interlinked that a major development with respect to one issue can
drastically upset calculations on all other fronts. The complex web of
linkages leads to one simple conclusion: We live in a world where
globalisation of opportunities and risks requires global norms, a global
institutional framework and a shared global philosophy. The report therefore
raises a critical question: are we, the people of the world, willing to
create a global architecture of security and economy that can deliver
fairness, freedom, justice and happiness to most people in the world?

The objective of this report is not to search answers to the emerging
dilemmas. Our intention is confined to draw attention to signals that may
miss the attention of policy makers, since they are normally over-occupied
with their daily concerns. The nature of our work provides us the luxury of
looking ahead. We have used this opportunity to raise questions that will
seize us before long. If this exercise inspires policy-makers around the
world to review some of their assumptions, it will have made a contribution
to policy discourse. If it leads to the search for answers to some of the
key concerns, it will be a bonus.

1 January 2008 Sundeep Waslekar

President

Strategic Foresight Group has identified 20 emerging issues that will
influence global security and economy in the next decade, approximately from
2011 to 2020. The first five are ranked on the basis of impact potential and
probability. The remaining 15 are mentioned thematically.

Most Significant Issues

1. Prosperity of the Periphery: Globalisation has enabled wealth creation at
a fast pace and will continue to do so in the next two decades. The question
is whether prosperity will be concentra-ted in urban centres, coastal areas,
and certain other privileged geographies or whether it will spread to the
periphery.

2. Competitive Extremism: The world is entering an era of competitive
extremism where extremist belief systems – based on religion, ethnicity,
nationalism, sub-nationalism, and ideology – compete with one another in all
parts of the world, gradually replacing the threat of terrorism, but
creating a much, much larger monster in its place.

3. Rise of Multi-Polarity: The United States, which has been at the centre
of global affairs for much of modern history since Second World War, will
still continue to occupy the centre-place but will see its role as a single
great power being replaced by a multi-polar world driven by the resurgence
of Russia, China, Iran and independence of the European Union.

4. Global Financial Crisis: The financial imbalances between major debtor
and creditor nations pose the risk of the collapse of the global financial
system, leading to extreme protectionism,

autarchy, trade wars and perhaps a worldwide military confrontation.

5. Water Scarcity in Emerging Economies: The scarcity of water in emerging
economies like China, India, South Africa and Turkey may put breaks on their
growth, create food insecurity, have a destabilising social impact and
impair the world economic growth.

Technologies and Resources

6. Revolution in the Cell: Will major breakthroughs in biology,
biotechnology and genetics, initially in North America and Western Europe,
spread to emerging economies through a high rate of technology diffusion? Or
will they provide a new platform for North-South politics, new political
debate based on bio-ethics and bio-terrorism?

7. Spread of Clean-tech: Climate change is an esta-blished concern. The
debate of the future will be about sustainable response to climate change,
with Clean-tech leading the way. Currently concentrated in North America and
Western Europe, will the new economies leap into the new economy with astute
investment strategies and R&D efforts? Or will there be a North-South divide
on this issue?

8. Fear of Pandemics: The sensitivity of political leaders to the fear of
one or more pandemics breaking out globally is expected to be heightened.
Will such a pandemic ever happen crippling the world economy or will the
fear divert health budgets from chronic diseases affecting millions of
people to an unknown future disease that might never threaten humanity in
any case?

9. Critical Information Infrastructure: With global networks integrating
critical information infrastructure, the security of our information
systems is crucial.The consequences of an accidental or a planned attack on
critical information infrastructure will be monumental.

10. Competition in Space: Will space be a sphere of competition between the
United States, Russia, European Union and China, along with new entrants
like Japan and India? Or will we rather see cooperation in our celestial
exploration?

11. Spread of Nuclear Weapons: With the spread of nuclear energy and an
increase in illicit trade in fissile material and technologies, the
proliferation of nuclear weapons will be a natural consequence.

12. Energy Security: As not only hydrocarbon resources but also uranium
reserves face the risk of depletion in the next three or four decades,
energy security, already in pubic discourse, will occupy a much more
significant place in global politics.

Troubled Geographies

13. US-Iran Strategic Cooperation: The hostile relationship between the
United States and Iran may see a gradual thaw, rapprochement, development
of strategic cooperation, if a war does not provide a permanent setback in
the meanwhile. Just as the US-China relations suddenly made a U-turn,
similar breakthrough in the US-Iran relations might be on the anvil.

14. Arab and Islamic Renaissance: Despite apparent despair, many new
initiatives may turn the Arab and Islamic countries into spheres of
dynamism, progress, knowledge, providing a new win-win basis for
relationship between the Western and Islamic countries.

15. Middle Eastern Drama: Until a decade ago, the conflict in the Middle
East was between Israel and the PLO. Now new players (Hamas, Hezbollah) have
entered the arena and Iran is moving from margins to the centre. China and
Russia are also likely to join the fray. The drama

Executive Summary

seems set to get more and more complicated with the entry of new actors.

16. Chinese Countryside: China's history is replete with examples of how
peasant revolutions have brought down the empire from time to time. Will the
simmering discontent in the farm sector in today's China lead to the
repetition of history? Or will the policies of 'harmonious society'
articulated by the current leadership be able to pre-empt such a risk?

Concepts and Ideas

17. Demographic Imbalance: Since rich countries will experience an ageing
problem and poor countries will have youth bulge, innovative global policy
tools, including managed migration, will be significant.

18. Erosion of Sovereignty: The concept of sovereignty of state, carefully
nurtured since the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, is undergoing change – due
to assault from above and below and due to voluntary surrendering of
sovereignty at the horizontal level.

19. Spread of Soft Power: Since most countries realise the devastating
consequences of military confrontation – especially one involving nuclear
weapons – there will be dramatic increase in the use of soft power to
further national goals. While advanced and industrialised countries are
familiar with this strategy, in the future we will see emerging countries
like China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and others using it.

20. Dominant Global Philosophy: For decades socialism Vs capitalism
dominated the global philosophical debate. Since the early 1990s, the clash
of civilizations theory influences intellectual basis of the current policy
discourse. Will it be relevant in the future? Or will there be return to
socialism-capitalism discourse? Or will there will a new philosophical
framework, such as Nature Vs Machine, or humans Vs post-humanism? The basis
of our philosophical debate will under-pin the architecture of global
governance, security and economy.
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