[Vnbiz] Not on Vietnam but may shed light on the inflation debate....a readers rsponse from

[Craig Stevenson]

Dear Anh Hoanh and CACC:

As to companies and research  going on in alternative energies in Vietnam, I
am very much interested to know that as well.  As to Solar, it would be
perfect for much of Vietnam most of the year.  Funny enough I read a report,
article, I forget where, not so long ago that so much production is coming
online this year, worldwide, regarding solar, that it is expected that
prices of solar will drop considerably, at least this year, as production is
expected to outpeform demand by a factor of 2 to 3 to 1.

(frankly, although so many seem to dismiss it, dangerous development of
overcapacity in China on the back of Chinese peasant savings, and that is
not a derogatory statement, in a runaway capital investment boom, where half
of the chinese economy is based upon such at present, something to be lauded
or a runaway train that even Beijing cannot slow leading to dire
consequences, you choose, most have chosen the former, I the latter as we
will come to see, perhaps, surprisingly over the next few years.  It will be
a shock like each of the other inflationary bubbles that the world falls in
love with, anyway).

Returning more directly to the topic at hand, I knew of someone in Vietnam
using dried rice husks to power (in burning) the conversion of sugarcane to
ethanol a few years back but have lost the contact infoirmation since.  As
to oil, World oil reserves are highly dependent on the price of the
commodity, the higher the price the more reserves, the more oil that is
economically recoverable.  With prices at current levels, the development of
Athabasca's tar sands is moving ahead, which  actually has created the
extension of reliance on the world's oil based economy and has created in
Canada the world's number one, or perhaps two, holder of oil reserves (ahead
of Saudi some say, second to Saudi others say, but Saudi hasn't moved oil
reserve estimates since 1980, so who really knows how muuch they have in the
ground).

Anyway, there are a series of podcasts on MIT's open courseware site, or
sister site on events, called "soapboxes".  Search "soapbox" and "energy
efficiency", "renewable energy", etc.....Anyway, the near to long-term
solutions of the world's energy problems are not had at present, at least in
the researchers opionions, by any one track.  Must work on efficiency of
use, must work on the development of new technology, must work on
diversifying to multiple sources.  AS we see with ethanol, use of corn etc
drives up commodity prices.  Uses of the highly efficient Brazil sugar cane,
may cause the destruction of land, further development would cause further
deforestation.  Reliance on solar would hit walls regarding the availability
of silica. And so on.  Then there are environmental concerns over batteries,
production and disposal of batteries.  It really will take some consensus to
move on the issue, with global imbalances that is a consensus that is very
hard to reach in a financially globalized world.

Craig

On Sun, Mar 9, 2008 at 9:39 PM, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com> wrote:

> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>
>
> Dear anh Craig & CACC,
>
> What you said about alternating price support and
> alternative-energy-research depending on economic conditions makes good
> sense.  We ought to think about that seriously.  The world is so depending
> on oil that world politics is so messed up due to oil.  Eventually we will
> run out of oil anyway.  I think the world will be much more balanced if
> solar energy becomes a main source of energy.  It will be a great equalizer,
> just like Internet, because, with little variation here and there,  the sun
> very much shines equally on all countries.
>
> BTW, I wonder if there is any alternative energy research currently in
> Vietnam?   Does anyone know the answer?
>
> Have a great day!
>
> Hoanh
>
> On Sat, Mar 8, 2008 at 1:40 AM, Craig Stevenson <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> >
> >
> > Dear CACC:
> >
> > Frankly, aren't oil reserves for VN nearing elimination.  Without
> > resolution of the Spratley's (Sorry I do not know the VN name) crucial to
> > any real further discussion of this.  Really, despite high costs at present
> > shouldn't we be discussing taxes to be used for other generation of enrgy
> > resources, alternatives.  Subsidy might lessen the blow to the consumer
> > which is important to offset wage increase demands and perhaps to subsidize
> > fertilizer to farmers etc to offset domestically produced food costs for the
> > same reason.  Any talk of subsidy should also speak of taxes in the same
> > manner marked to prices in the market.  Perhaps, oil rises and subsidies
> > kick into place, oil falls and subsidies lessen or taxes kick in at certain
> > prices which go earmarked to an energy indepndence fund, etc...
> >
> > Phong, in all reality, wouldn't current events seem to imply that the
> > concept that "markets rule and should rule" is undermined to the very large
> > imbalances in a world economy that isn't actually, fully dependent upon
> > market forces.  All intervene in every market to varying degrees.  Further,
> > it might be that the curent "market-supremacy model", built for/from
> > political expediency in an era of the cold war, that currently
> > philosophically reigns, might not actually be relevant, or lasting, in a
> > world where, despite how we (would, might) prefer it be, doesn't exist in
> > reality.  A peg distorts the market, as does a tax, as does financial
> > globalization, inequality, interdependence, and speculation unfortunately.
> > Might it not be that neither Hayak nor Keynes is right.  Of course neither
> > should VN reutrn to a command economy, especially after the distribution of
> > wealth effects of late, nor should it blindly follow a market rules
> > philosophy. I believe the world misunderstands  the nature (and certainly
> > misjudges the implications) of the fundamental shifts that could occur quite
> > quickly do to global imbalances and I guarentee possible movement doesn't
> > likely tend toward free market liberalism.
> >
> > Craig
> > On Sat, Mar 8, 2008 at 12:39 AM, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com>
> > wrote:
> >
> > > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> > >
> > >
> > > Dear brother Phong,
> > >
> > > Oil will never be a "market economy."  At least not in our lifetime.
> > > Oil is a global monopoly.  Oil price is a monopoly price determined by
> > > OPEC.  So the price of oil is not really ruled by supply and demand of a
> > > market economy.
> > >
> > > That is why in a year when the American citizens paid
> > > exhorbitant prices for gasoline and gas price rose continuously (and still
> > > rising as of now), Exxon had a 41-billion-USD profits in 2007, the largest
> > > profit in the US corporate history.  Four largest oil companies had more
> > > than 100 billion USD of profit in 2007.
> > > http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/economy/2008/02/01/exxons-profits-measuring-a-record-windfall.html
> > >
> > > And the US government is STILL subsididing US oil companies.
> > >
> > > Vietnam oil is controlled by two monopoly arms in import and export.
> > > And the monopolies won't go away anytime soon because of the important role
> > > of oil in the national security and economy and becasue the monopolistic
> > > nature of the global oil industry.
> > >
> > > So any talk about "market economy" and the law of supply and demand in
> > > oil is unrealistic.   It is "supply and demand" in a distorted and
> > > monopolistic environment.  What we need to do is to understand the
> > > monopolistic character of oil industry to structure production, distribution
> > > and pricing in a way that is fair and good for citizens and the
> > > national economy, and not to allow absurd things happen like in the US--the
> > > government subsidizing oil companies, and in a year when citizens pay rapid
> > > price increases, oil companies post record windfall profits.
> > >
> > > Have a great day!
> > >
> > > Hoanh
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --
> > > Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
> > > Washington DC
> > >
> >
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