[Vnbiz] June inflation -- slowing down
Tran Dinh Hoanh
tdhoanh at gmail.com
Thu Jun 26 15:44:07 PDT 2008
Dear Brother Phong,
Thanks for the note.
The inflation rate of June is less than inflation rate of Mya, that is an
improvement to me. If you don't want to call that "improvement," then
please feel free to.
If we go your way, then all the countries of the world up to this point are
going down hill, because if you look at any country in the world, the price
index of June 2008 is very high compared with the price index of June 2000.
It means, on the whole, since June 2000, the price index of any country in
any month is a little higher than the month before. Using your example, the
temparature keeps increasing every month since June 2000. So every country
in the world has been doing worse since June 2000. (Note: Over the
longterm, consumer price index ALWAYS goes up in any country of the world.
That is why $ 1 USD was worth much more in 2000 than 2008. Same thing with
the VND).
If you want to use language that way, that is fine with me (since I have
understood your reasoning). As I said, we should not argue unnecessarily.
Have a great day!
Hoanh
_______________________
On Thu, Jun 26, 2008 at 5:48 PM, <Hong-Phong_Pho at ita.doc.gov> wrote:
> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>
>
>
> Dear anh Hoanh:
> I still don't know why you say it's a great improvement.
> Looking at month-to -month changes and pronouncing great improvement is not
> a useful diagnostic.
> The year-on-year numbers tell you how much more the consumer is paying
> compare to a year ago.
> Let me put it this way.
> Using your monthly rate of inflation, a shopping of goods which cost
> 1million VND in April, would be 103.91 million VND in May and 106.94 million
> VND in June. How can that be considered a great improvement?
> If the year-on-year inflation for June was lower than 25.2%, then we can
> say it's an improvement.
> A non-economist way to look at this:
> If my baby has a 100 degree F fever at 4am which increased to 103.91 degree
> F by 5am then 106.94 degree F by 6am, I would not be less worried. I would
> need the 6am temperature to stay at or go below 103.91 degree F (0%
> increase) before I can relax. Any doctor telling me that there is great
> improvement at 106.94 degree F is a quack doctor.
> HPP
>
>
> *"Tran Dinh Hoanh" <tdhoanh at gmail.com>*
> Sent by: vnbiz-bounces at mail.saigon.com
>
> 06/26/2008 04:27 PM Please respond to
> vnbiz at vietlinks.net
>
> To
> vnbiz at vietlinks.net cc
> Subject
> Re: [Vnbiz] June inflation -- slowing down
>
>
>
>
> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>
> Dear brother Phong.
>
> I am loking at each month's performance to see how one month compared to
> another. If the increase in May is 3.91% and June is 2.14% that is an
> improvement. I can't see these two numbers any other way. Sorry.
>
> The YOY numbers, they may serve some other useful purposes. But for my
> examination of current performance, they serve no purposes for me, because
> they contain all preceding months. If you like to look at the entire year
> and say no improvement, then fine. I look at each month's number and and
> say there is great improvement. There is no reason to argue. As long as
> everyone knows why we say certain things.
>
> Have a great day!
>
> Hoanh
>
>
>
>
> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>
> Dear CACC,
>
> June inflation is 2.14%, compared with 3.91% for May. This is a 45%
> decrease. Great improvement! But 2.14 is still high; that is the
> equivalent of 25.68% per year. Looks like the main culprit this month is
> sitll food with 3.29%, although that is much less than the 22.19% May food
> price increase. Housing & construction materials and household appliances
> increase a bit. Other than that, everything else is just about the same.
>
> Below Ihave the both the June chart (on top) and the May in (at the bottom)
> FYI. These charts are from the General StatisticsOffice of Vietnam.
>
> Have a good day!
>
> Hoanh
> ____________
>
> *
> Consumer price index* *
> Gold and USD price indexes, whole country* *
> June 2008*
>
>
>
>
> * *
> Index in June 2008 compared with (%)
> Index in the first half year in 2008 compared with same period in 2007
> *Base year 2005*
> *June* *
> 2007*
> *Dec. 2007*
> *May2008*
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *Consumer price index* *144.30*
> *126.80*
> *118.44*
> *102.14*
> *120.34*
> Food and foodstuff 170.32
> 145.55
> 130.73
> 103.29
> *133.05*
> *Of which: - Food * 212.71
> 174.29
> 159.44
> 104.29
> *139.14*
> * - Foodstuff* 157.78
> 137.54
> 121.83
> 103.05
> *131.91*
> * - Meals and drinking out* 158.32
> 133.35
> 122.44
> 102.46
> *127.82*
> Beverage and cigarette 124.72
> 111.46
> 108.21
> 101.07
> *108.56*
> Garment, footwear, hat 121.32
> 109.94
> 106.67
> 100.92
> *108.50*
> Housing and construction materials (*) 145.33
> 123.72
> 114.34
> 101.93
> *120.49*
> Household appliances and goods 120.45
> 108.44
> 106.41
> 101.28
> *106.73*
> Medical products and health care 117.49
> 108.08
> 103.87
> 100.66
> *107.98*
> Means of transport and communication 128.05
> 114.88
> 110.58
> 100.35
> *112.69*
> *Of which: Postal services and Telecommunication* 83.75
> 88.73
> 90.70
> 99.90
> *88.07*
> Education 110.23
> 103.24
> 102.12
> 100.67
> *102.38*
> Culture, sport and entertainment 111.49
> 104.23
> 105.29
> 100.40
> *103.69*
> Other consumer goods and services 128.13
> 113.02
> 108.14
> 100.96
> *112.37*
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
> *Gold price index* *213.63*
> *141.01*
> *116.27*
> *104.36*
> *139.25*
> *USD price index* *106.55*
> *104.89*
> *105.02*
> *104.69*
> *100.51*
> * *
> * *
>
> * *
> * *
>
>
> (*) Including: housing, electricity, water, fuel and construction
> materials.
>
> *
> Consumer price index* *
> Gold and USD price indexes, whole country* *
> May 2008*
>
>
>
>
> * *
> Index in May 2008 compared with (%)
> Index in the five first months in 2008 compared with same period in 2007
> *Base year 2005*
> *May* *
> 2007*
> *Dec. 2007*
> *April 2008*
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *Consumer price index* *141.28*
> *125.20*
> *115.96*
> *103.91*
> *119.09*
> Food and foodstuff 164.89
> 142.35
> 126.56
> 107.25
> *130.68*
> *Of which: - Food * 203.96
> 167.84
> 152.88
> 122.19
> *133.01*
> * - Foodstuff* 153.11
> 135.39
> 118.23
> 102.28
> *130.81*
> * - Eating outside* 154.52
> 131.23
> 119.50
> 102.56
> *126.75*
> Beverage and cigarette 123.40
> 110.45
> 107.06
> 101.88
> *107.99*
> Garment, footwear, hat 120.22
> 109.46
> 105.69
> 100.96
> *108.22*
> Housing and construction materials (*) 142.57
> 122.99
> 112.17
> 101.20
> *119.85*
> Household appliances and goods 118.93
> 107.48
> 105.07
> 100.93
> *106.39*
> Medical products and health care 116.72
> 108.24
> 103.19
> 100.48
> *107.96*
> Means of transport and communication 127.60
> 115.52
> 110.20
> 100.34
> *112.25*
> *Of which: Postal services and Telecommunication* 83.83
> 87.80
> 90.79
> 99.93
> *87.94*
> Education 109.49
> 102.72
> 101.44
> 100.45
> *102.21*
> Culture, sport and entertainment 111.05
> 105.11
> 104.87
> 100.57
> *103.58*
> Other consumer goods and services 126.91
> 112.50
> 107.11
> 100.33
> *112.24*
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
> *Gold price index* *204.70*
> *132.45*
> *111.41*
> *96.11*
> *137.81*
> *USD price index* *101.78*
> *100.45*
> *100.32*
> *101.02*
> *99.79*
> * *
> * *
>
> * *
> * *
>
>
> (*) Including: housing, electricity, water, fuel and construction
> materials.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --
> Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
> Washington DC_______________________________________________
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> --
> Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
> Washington DC _______________________________________________
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--
Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
Washington DC
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