[Vnbiz] June inflation -- slowing down

Thu Jun 26 14:48:45 PDT 2008

Dear anh Hoanh:
I still don't know why you say it's a great improvement.
Looking at month-to -month changes and pronouncing great improvement is 
not a useful diagnostic.
The year-on-year numbers tell you how much more the consumer is paying 
compare to a year ago.
Let me put it this way.
Using your monthly rate of inflation, a shopping of goods which cost 
1million VND in April, would be 103.91 million VND in May and 106.94 
million VND in June.  How can that be considered a great improvement?
If the year-on-year inflation for June was lower than 25.2%, then we can 
say it's an improvement.
A non-economist way to look at this:
If my baby has a 100 degree F fever at 4am which increased to 103.91 
degree F by 5am then 106.94 degree F by 6am, I would not be less worried. 
I would need the 6am temperature to stay at or go below 103.91 degree F 
(0% increase) before I can relax.  Any doctor telling me that there is 
great improvement at 106.94 degree F is a quack doctor.
HPP

"Tran Dinh Hoanh" <tdhoanh at gmail.com> 
Sent by: vnbiz-bounces at mail.saigon.com
06/26/2008 04:27 PM
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Re: [Vnbiz] June inflation -- slowing down

[ Vietnam Business Forum ]

Dear brother Phong.

I am loking at each month's performance to see how one month compared to 
another.  If the increase in May is 3.91% and June is 2.14% that is an 
improvement.  I can't see these two numbers any other way.  Sorry.

The YOY numbers, they may serve some other useful purposes.  But for my 
examination of current performance, they serve no purposes for me, because 
they contain all preceding months.  If you like to look at the entire year 
and say no improvement, then fine.  I look at each month's number and and 
say there is great improvement.  There is no reason to argue.  As long as 
everyone knows why we say certain things. 

Have a great day!

Hoanh

[ Vietnam Business Forum ]

Dear CACC, 

June inflation is 2.14%, compared with 3.91% for May.  This is a 45% 
decrease.  Great improvement!  But 2.14 is still high; that is the 
equivalent of 25.68% per year.  Looks like the main culprit this month is 
sitll food with 3.29%, although that is much less than the 22.19% May food 
price increase.  Housing & construction materials and household appliances 
increase a bit.  Other than that, everything else is just about the same. 

Below Ihave the both the June chart (on top) and the May in (at the 
bottom) FYI.  These charts are from the General StatisticsOffice of 
Vietnam. 

Have a good day! 

Hoanh 
____________ 

Consumer price index 
Gold and USD price indexes, whole country 
June 2008

Index in June 2008 compared with (%)
Index in the  first half year in 2008 compared with same period in 2007
Base year 2005
June 
2007
Dec. 2007
May2008

Consumer price index 
144.30
126.80
118.44
102.14
120.34
Food and foodstuff 
170.32
145.55
130.73
103.29
133.05
Of which: - Food 
212.71
174.29
159.44
104.29
139.14
               - Foodstuff 
157.78
137.54
121.83
103.05
131.91
               - Meals and drinking out 
158.32
133.35
122.44
102.46
127.82
Beverage and cigarette 
124.72
111.46
108.21
101.07
108.56
Garment, footwear, hat 
121.32
109.94
106.67
100.92
108.50
Housing and construction materials (*) 
145.33
123.72
114.34
101.93
120.49
Household appliances and goods 
120.45
108.44
106.41
101.28
106.73
Medical products and health care 
117.49
108.08
103.87
100.66
107.98
Means of transport and communication 
128.05
114.88
110.58
100.35
112.69
Of which: Postal services and Telecommunication 
83.75
88.73
90.70
99.90
88.07
Education 
110.23
103.24
102.12
100.67
102.38
Culture, sport and entertainment 
111.49
104.23
105.29
100.40
103.69
Other consumer goods and services 
128.13
113.02
108.14
100.96
112.37

Gold price index 
213.63
141.01
116.27
104.36
139.25
USD price index 
106.55
104.89
105.02
104.69
100.51

(*) Including: housing, electricity, water, fuel and construction 
materials. 

Consumer price index 
Gold and USD price indexes, whole country 
May 2008

Index in May 2008 compared with (%)
Index in the five first months in 2008 compared with same period in 2007
Base year 2005
May 
2007
Dec. 2007
April 2008

Consumer price index 
141.28
125.20
115.96
103.91
119.09
Food and foodstuff 
164.89
142.35
126.56
107.25
130.68
Of which: - Food 
203.96
167.84
152.88
122.19
133.01
               - Foodstuff 
153.11
135.39
118.23
102.28
130.81
               - Eating outside 
154.52
131.23
119.50
102.56
126.75
Beverage and cigarette 
123.40
110.45
107.06
101.88
107.99
Garment, footwear, hat 
120.22
109.46
105.69
100.96
108.22
Housing and construction materials (*) 
142.57
122.99
112.17
101.20
119.85
Household appliances and goods 
118.93
107.48
105.07
100.93
106.39
Medical products and health care 
116.72
108.24
103.19
100.48
107.96
Means of transport and communication 
127.60
115.52
110.20
100.34
112.25
Of which: Postal services and Telecommunication 
83.83
87.80
90.79
99.93
87.94
Education 
109.49
102.72
101.44
100.45
102.21
Culture, sport and entertainment 
111.05
105.11
104.87
100.57
103.58
Other consumer goods and services 
126.91
112.50
107.11
100.33
112.24

Gold price index 
204.70
132.45
111.41
96.11
137.81
USD price index 
101.78
100.45
100.32
101.02
99.79

(*) Including: housing, electricity, water, fuel and construction 
materials. 

-- 
Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
Washington DC_______________________________________________
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-- 
Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
Washington DC _______________________________________________
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