[Vnbiz] Vietnam's position on economic issues

Tue Jun 10 12:33:18 PDT 2008

Hi Craig:

Thanks for sharing your personal thinking on Vietnam to us. To be honest,
when I asked the question, I did not know how the situation would be, and
what would be done. People find it easy to report the bad, the worse and the
worst and make funs on the government job sometimes, but, again but, I doubt
if anyone really thinks about possible solutions. I am not the
exception. But if air my voice, given current situation, my thought goes to
fiscal policies - that's the root overall. I believe more public spending at
this time on long term projects (e.g. the national railways) would cause the
situation even worse. Any other thoughts?

Cheers,
Hao

On Tue, Jun 10, 2008 at 2:30 PM, Craig Stevenson <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>
>
> Hao:
>
> Frankly, I do not have a clue and suspect that those in the SBV to have
> access to information, that know one else has, that drives their policy
> choices. I believe that the government has said what they wanted to do, not
> sure that the chosen limitations of infrastructure spending went far enough
> (less than 10% cut, not enough, but hard to accomplish more, and keep
> everyone happy, I suspect).  Then, they are asking the people to increase
> their savings, reduce their consumption, obviously by increasing rates,
> frankly I am sure the SBV is doing the best job that they know how.
>
> Not sure how long the government can go on subsidizing the items they do;
> take oil, am sure that that helps everyone, am sure it unduly benefits the
> wealthy who drive cars, and is partly responsible for 162% growth in
> automobile imports recently announced.  A very costly subsidy to the rich.
>
> The job of governance is particularly difficult, the Vietnamese people
> should stand together, remain calm and weather this storm, not because big
> bad foreigners are out there to get them (as is too often insinuated on this
> forum, your problems are your own, only made more difficult than elsewhere
> in the developing world because of policy choices previously made, be
> honest).  The Vietnamese people do not need foreign bogeyman, nothing more
> is required for the unity of the people then the collective challenges that
> they currently face.
>
> I suspect, like everywhere, there to be many competing interest groups
> involved in governance of the country, each group fights for their pet
> projects, their bread and butter, fights that their support is not cut.
>
> Further, as I understand it, the way in which the nation organizes, and
> makes decisions...that lengthy process exacerbates quick, fair, and
> necessary decision-making in times of trouble, do to its reliance on
> consensus which extends through many hands to the local level.
>
> This is especially evident in how public works spending is decided, agreed
> upon.
>
> It is said that that process causes much inefficiency and waste, building
> ten projects when one is needed, I believe some describe it.  How to change
> that, it seems a big piece of the puzzle needed to be solved to get Vietnam
> to the universal prosperity (not material wealth, mind you, as I don't
> believe in its efficacy) that its people rightfully deserve, all of its
> people deserve, none more than any other.
>
> My sincerest hope, is that the people, all people, keep a cool head, and
> rise above their naked self-interest.  I hope those with abundance are
> patriotic enough to be willing to sacrifice some of their wealth, position
> and interest to do what is best for the nation.  That is my hope, regardless
> your nation will get through this.
>
> If it makes kids focus more on the future, then on what they are wearing,
> at least those who can make such choices, then I suspect your nation will be
> better off for it.
>
> All this I hope in my nation as well, in my world, which is why I am more
> welcoming and hopeful for suffering, in my nation, than some in other
> social-political-philosophical quarters.
>
> I do not believe that all is lost, for our feeble humanity, I am quite sure
> that there are enough with common sense to pull it all together.
>
> Am sure that Vietnam will be alright.
>
> Despite what others may believe, there is more to life than coins jingling
> in our pockets, there are the thoughts and feelings of our friends and, yes,
> even, strangers on the street.
>
> There is the love in our hearts and the real wealth, the real power and
> strength that one gains from helping others in need.
>
> You can do it, Vietnam will do it, not to become a great nation, what a
> dumb goal for any nation,
> to be a nation peopled by great, caring, righteous, compassionate, loving,
> and understanding people, ......that is a goal worth fighting for, worth
> suffering for, worth working for.  The only goal that would eventuate in a
> "great" nation
>
> Otherwise, you can have all the gold in the world, and be the poorest,
> saddest soul that I have ever met and live in the poorest saddest nation in
> the world.  Poor, perhaps not in material wealth, but poor for the few
> minutes that you are able to live on this earth, poor for what you would
> leave your children.  Better to live proud, strong, and free, free of these
> material chains that bind.  And I am afraid that it is an excessive love of
> the material, especially among some groups, that has led to these problems
> that we find today.  Although, using corn for ethanol is a much more
> convenient excuse.
>
> In the meantime there will be some more pain, hopefully it leads to more
> focus and better choices for All,
> from the bottom up and the top down.
>
> Craig
>
> On Tue, Jun 10, 2008 at 12:57 PM, Quach Manh Hao <quachhao at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>>
>>
>> Dear anh Hoanh, Craig and friends,
>>
>> After all what have been seen, what should be done?
>> Cheers,
>> Hao
>> On Tue, Jun 10, 2008 at 12:34 PM, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>>>
>>>
>>> Dear and Craig & CACC,
>>>
>>> Of course "dollar trading has frozen" at the official rate.  No one
>>> trades at that rate in the market (unless some foreign tourist sell his USD
>>> at a gold shop at the official rate, because he has no idead on what else he
>>> can do).
>>>
>>> But rest assured, brother, the dollar trade is alive and well.  At the
>>> "free market" rate, mind you.  (Note: "Free market rate" now would be more
>>> accurately called "black market rate").  However, since the market trade is
>>> no longer "free" and has become "black," you can't see it, Craig.  You're
>>> not in the loop.  But if you give 100 USD to any Vietnamese friend and ask
>>> him to sell it for you at the market price, he would be able to do it for
>>> you.  Even if he is not in the loop, he may know a friend who may know a
>>> friend who is in the market loop.  Please keep in mind, the entire trade was
>>> fully open and free several days ago. It can't disappear that fast.  It just
>>> goes underground temporarily, until the SBV turns a blind eye and allows it
>>> to become "free" again.
>>>
>>> I'm still digesting your info on food price.
>>>
>>> Have a great day!
>>>
>>> Hoanh
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
>>> Washington DC
>>>
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>>
>>
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