[Vnbiz] Vietnam's position on economic issues
Craig Stevenson
cstevenson2000 at gmail.com
Mon Jun 9 04:47:04 PDT 2008
Oh, one more thing, my local bread shop, which had raised its rates a couple
times since Tet, has now lowered them to the initial rates at Tet.....some
pressure is obviously being exerted on the market.
On Mon, Jun 9, 2008 at 7:44 AM, Craig Stevenson <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com>
wrote:
> Gold down slightly, SBV rate holding at Gold shops.
>
>
> On Sun, Jun 8, 2008 at 12:52 PM, Shane Wall <
> shane.wall at translingualexpress.com> wrote:
>
>> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>>
>> Anh Craig,
>> It seems to be a 'taboo' to talk about the "herd mentality" here
>> nowadays! Rumor, speculation and opportunistic behavior are rampant now.
>> To say otherwise is to ignore reality.
>>
>> I joined the throngs. But I sold my 1.9 taels of gold ... and used
>> the proceeds to help fund some more rice paddy acquisitions and land
>> improvements for my wife and son's long-term future. Given the most
>> recent issues about food security and all the macro-measures that
>> different Governments have taken on the international level, the actual
>> land was cheaper than it was 6 months ago. And it's good dirt too!!!
>>
>> Of course I am not complaining about the current situation ... it
>> suits me perfectly because I am looking at a 10-15 or 20 year
>> time-frame. All those "short-term" gain chasers are now losing their
>> shirts ... and helping me pay for my wife and son's future. I like this
>> "free-market" stuff! :-)
>>
>> Shane
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>> Mr. Shane Wall
>> Managing Director
>>
>> Trans Lingual Express
>> 188/16 Nguyen Thuong Hien St,
>> P.1, Q. Go Vap, HCMC,
>> Vietnam
>>
>> Mail: shane.wall at translingualexpress.com
>> Web: www.translingualexpress.com
>>
>> Ph: +84 (8) 588 1701
>>
>> Mbl: +84 (090) 9484 753 (English)
>> Mbl: +84 (090) 7885 375 (Vietnamese)
>>
>>
>>
>> Craig Stevenson wrote:
>> > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> >
>> > Very openly, on Thursday they offered between 18,000 and 18,500, even
>> > at those rates, buying Gold just seemed terribly expensive. On
>> > Friday, 16,200. We all know that the Mafia, government officials, and
>> > powerful people can do pretty much what they want everywhere around
>> > the world, and, of course, Vietnam is no exception, but for common
>> > folk, such as me, the rate was 16,200 at Gold shops and they were out
>> > of dollars, and I had dollars, but I was trying to buy a necklace and
>> > at those prices, the price was just too much.
>> >
>> > A tael = 37.5 grams
>> > An ounce on the gold market worldwide = 31.1 grams (normal ounce 28.4
>> > grams)
>> >
>> > Nearing 19,000,000 a tael, and we have a significant, 10% or more,
>> > rate above, already exorbitant, worldwide gold prices, too rich for my
>> > blood, at least my taste.
>> >
>> > I figure I'll wait it out. As everyone else should. Hopefully,
>> > short term excess leads to better choices among the people (ie less
>> > Chinese imports) and no borrowing for speculation (either Real Estate
>> > or Stock Market) and better allocation of capital (for what purpose
>> > would oil companies and banks run resorts and high-rise developments,
>> > and how could they compete with world-class hoteliers and property
>> > managers, they can't, why bother, but to solidify the wealth, power,
>> > and position of select groupings of elites. Hopefully the economy
>> > gets better at allocating capital and becomes less dependent upon
>> > feeding a consumptive frenzy among some groups of people. It amazes
>> > me that the guys and girls who serve me Pho have nicer cell-phones
>> > than I do, how could that be, it is a dangerous push toward
>> > consumption, and an emphasis of image before substance, sorry, but it
>> > is a precious waste of resources.
>> >
>> > Craig
>> >
>> > On Sun, Jun 8, 2008 at 9:12 AM, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com
>> > <mailto:tdhoanh at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> >
>> > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>> >
>> >
>> > Dear Craig & CACC,
>> >
>> > I am glad you say "it seems," Craig. Of course, everything must
>> > "seem" to look official. I imagine you will never see a sign with
>> > the free market rate anywhere in Vietnam (except probably in some
>> > small ares of the country where no one knows who the SBV is and no
>> > one cares about what the SBV says). All the signs at all the
>> > exchange places have the official rate (That is how the rate is
>> > OFFICIAL!).
>> >
>> > (The daily rate shown on VNExpress is always the official rate,
>> > which of course gives me very little news value. The only way I
>> > know the free market rate is that once in awhile, VNExpress has an
>> > article on the exchange rate. Other than that, most of the time,
>> > I am blinded on this matter).
>> >
>> > If you want to sell your USD at the gold shop at the offical rate,
>> > the shop is happy. Buying at the official rate is a diffdrent
>> > thing though. Chances are the answer is "Sorry, we're out of USD
>> > already. Want some gold instead, sir?"
>> >
>> > When government really enforces the official rates, only regulars
>> > in the "market network" are able to do business with each other at
>> > the free market rate. If at the gold shop, then it is in the back
>> > of the shop, not the front. However, where government may harass,
>> > most of the free market exchanges are not at the shops, but at
>> > more private locations.
>> >
>> > As a matter of terminilogy, there is a recent noticebale change.
>> > Since the beginning of time, it has always been "black market
>> > rate" (gia cho den). But very recently, probably within several
>> > weeks or several months, the new term pops up on the media--"gia
>> > tu do" (free price) or "gia do la tren thi truong tu do" (the USD
>> > price on the free market). This could be a subtle sign of a very
>> > significant change in policy. Probably the "black market" was
>> > slowly allowed to become (legally tolerated) free market.
>> >
>> > I think the SBV now is trying to reverse its own (quiet) policy,
>> > which, I repeat, is not very wise move. I think the SBV shoul
>> > just let the market work and utilize the exchange rate to push
>> > export. If it wants it can use the offical rate to help import
>> > and to withdraw some VND circulation to reduce inflation pressure,
>> > until it runs out of USD to do that, then it can simply let the
>> > market take over. Holding the VND too high against the USD not
>> > only distorts the economy so much (which makes more difficult the
>> > planning for all other things like export, import, price controls,
>> > inflation control, etc.) but also greatly increases the chance for
>> > speculative currency attacks from international players. Don't
>> > give them the reason to form a wolf pack.
>> >
>> > Have a great day!
>> >
>> > Hoanh
>> >
>> > On Sun, Jun 8, 2008 at 2:52 AM, Craig Stevenson
>> > <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com <mailto:cstevenson2000 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> >
>> > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>> >
>> >
>> > FYI, at least yesterday, it seems that the Gold Shops, at
>> > least in Hanoi, were trading at official SBV rate, VND to USD.
>> >
>> > And Gold is way to high....
>> >
>> > Craig
>> >
>> > --
>> > Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
>> > Washington DC
>> >
>> >
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>> > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
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