[Vnbiz] Pan-Tonkin Gulf Cooperation

[Tai Phan]

Pan-Tonkin Gulf cooperation

*The South China Sea territorial dispute is the last but still salient
security issue between China and several ASEAN countries. The emerging
Pan-Tonkin Gulf Regional Economic Cooperation scheme has the potential to
further de-securitize the South China Sea dispute and forge cooperation in
many areas. The Pan-Tonkin Gulf proposal, if adopted, will turn the South
China Sea into an "internal lake" of this regional economic zone. From
RSIS<http://www.idss.edu.sg/publications/commenatries.html>
.*

By Li Mingjiang for RSIS (16/01/08)

Despite the reduced tension in the South China Sea over the past few years,
diplomatic tussles over sovereignty and resource claims have never been
absent. This is evidenced by the recent war of words between Hanoi and
Beijing when China staged a military exercise near the disputed Paracels and
decided to set up Sansha county in Hainan to manage jurisdictional matters
in the South China Sea.

This notwithstanding, the general climate remains one in which the six
claimants - China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei -
prefer cooperation to conflict. This is largely due to their willingness to
put aside their disputes over some areas in favor of common economic
development and regional strategic interests. Various confidence-building
measures, in particular the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the
South China Sea, have contributed to the relative tranquility in this
maritime region.

A new proposal, initiated by China, may provide further incentive for the
various parties to move beyond the status quo. This proposal calls for a
regional economic cooperation framework known as the Pan-Tonkin Gulf
Regional Economic Cooperation scheme, which is strongly pushed by the local
government of China's Guangxi Autonomous Region. The Pan-Tonkin Gulf
cooperation proposal, if eventually adopted by China and ASEAN, has the
potential to further de-securitize the South China Sea and could lead to
breakthroughs in multilateral cooperation in such areas as maritime
transportation, environmental protection, and joint exploitation of
resources.
Origin of the Pan-Tonkin Gulf Cooperation Proposal

The origin of the proposal is the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
framework in which Guangxi, together with Vietnam, proposed a Tonkin Gulf
regional economic cooperation zone. Apart from Vietnam, this scheme would
include China's Guangxi, Guangdong and Hainan provinces.

Starting from early 2006, Guangxi began to push for a wider Pan-Tonkin Gulf
economic cooperation scheme to include parts of China's Southwest and
Southeast, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the
Philippines, and Brunei. The expansion of the original sub-regional economic
zone is an effort on the part of Guangxi to construct its coastal area as a
new economic growth centre in China. It is also partly an effort to compete
with Yunnan province in strengthening economic cooperation with Southeast
Asia.

Guangxi proposed that the Pan-Tonkin Gulf scheme be part of what is called a
physically M-shaped structure in China-ASEAN cooperation: the Greater Mekong
Sub-region (GMS); the Nanning to Singapore corridor (Mainland economic
cooperation); and the Pan-Tonkin Gulf zone (Maritime economic cooperation).
Guangxi does not have advantages in the GMS, but the Pan-Tonkin Gulf zone
and the M-shaped strategy will allow it to play a leading role in
China-ASEAN economic cooperation.

Former Guangxi Party leader Liu Qibao proposed that the Pan-Tonkin Gulf
cooperation scheme be officially incorporated into the ASEAN-China FTA
framework. The scheme has won the support of top Chinese leaders. During an
inspection visit to Guangxi in August 2007, President Hu Jintao encouraged
Guangxi to further open up and take full advantage of its littoral position
to push for multilateral economic cooperation beyond the Tonkin Gulf.

Premier Wen Jiabao also gave encouraging comments on the proposal both at
the memorial summit of China-ASEAN summit in November 2006 and at the tenth
China-ASEAN summit in January 2007. The Guangxi local government has
recently submitted the official policy proposal to the central government in
Beijing. Various ministries are currently reviewing and revising the
proposal. With the top leadership favoring the initiative, the Pan-Tonkin
Gulf cooperation scheme is likely to be launched and pushed by China in the
China-ASEAN bilateral framework.

There are a few reasons why leaders in Beijing think favorably of this
initiative. It is perceived as useful in rapidly developing the economy in
Guangxi, still a relatively poor province, and the economic development in
China's vast under-developed mid-western regions. Also, it is believed to
contribute positively to the China-ASEAN FTA because those Southeast Asian
countries involved in the cooperation are relatively developed.
Security implications for the South China Sea

The proposal has won in-principle approval from other regional states,
including Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines, apart from Vietnam.
Guangxi has already begun to set up an expert team together with the ASEAN
secretariat and the Asian Development Bank to push for the scheme. The
Pan-Tonkin Gulf cooperation plan, if fully implemented, would be very
significant for security in the South China Sea. This is because the
envisioned cooperation would turn the sea into some sort of "internal lake"
of the regional economic zone.

A high degree of security in the South China Sea is in turn a necessary
condition for the regional cooperation scheme to function smoothly. More
importantly, in the proposed plan, there are a few areas that directly deal
with the South China Sea. For instance, there is recommendation for a
network of ports surrounding the South China Sea. There is also a proposal
for cooperation in fisheries, maritime energy, maritime environment and
tourism around the South China Sea.

Substantive cooperation in any of these functional areas would mean a major
breakthrough in the South China Sea dispute. Chinese analysts and top
leaders have commented that the emergence of the Pan-Tonkin Gulf Zone will
help initiate China-ASEAN dialogue and cooperation in maritime affairs. It
will also serve as a platform for communication and coordination among
various parties on the South China Sea.
Stabilizing the South China Sea

The Pan-Tonkin Gulf regional cooperation, now strongly pushed by China, is
likely to give further impetus for Beijing to engage other claimant states
on the South China Sea dispute. If the relevant ASEAN countries eventually
agree to join hands in the new sub-regional cooperation scheme, the time
will soon come when all parties in the South China Sea dispute earnestly
tackle this maritime issue. They will find it helpful to revisit many of
those policy recommendations that were proposed at the Indonesia-initiated
workshops in the 1990s and various joint development schemes or schemes of
sharing resources that had been suggested by the scholarly community.

This new economic integration project, if ultimately realized, will give the
region some reason to be optimistic about stability of the South China Sea
in the near future.

 ------------------------------

Li Mingjiang is an Assistant Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Reprinted with permission from
RSIS<http://www.idss.edu.sg/publications/commenatries.html>.
Copyright (c) 2007 S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang
Technological University, Blk S4, Level B4, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore
639798.
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