[Vnbiz] Despite the national spotlight on Obama/Clinton, McCain has slowly resumed his lead

[Shandon Phan]

I think the forum members have so far learned about certain
individuals' preferrence on presidential candidates, especially our
outspoken and "extremely inspired" Obama supporters.  Perhaps it's
time for all of us to take a step back to see the big picture...  What
is really going on out there.

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McCain has not had much spotlight on national media since he's pretty
much an uncontested Republican nominee.  All attention and energy have
been taking place in the Obama and Clinton camps.  Due to this energy
and excitement and unfair coverage, McCan was trailing Obama somewhere
from 3 to 6 points a few weeks ago.  But the picture will change
completely when the Democratic nominee emerges and the debate/battle
then focuses on candidates' qualifications and stance on issues.  In
short, when things get beyond emotional appeal and go substantive.

Certainly, for all his oratory gift and intelligence, Obama is a
formidable opponent.  But we, as McCain supporters, believe that even
if + a big IF + McCain trails Obama by 10 pts in national poll (which
never happened), he can still win the general election by a landslide.
 How would that happen?  He has advantages and can win big swing
states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida.   Not only
that, we will compete and can win in deep blue states like California,
Maryland, etc.  And for a unique "Comeback Kid" type of candidate like
McCain, he has proven again and again that as long as he runs as a man
of character, being himself and continue to lead with vision,
character, wisdom, and humility, he will become our next President.

That is our belief and conviction.  That is also our objective
analysis of election politics.  Even assuming the worst scenario.   So
far, the picture is much brighter.
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The recent Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times Poll:

In a general-election match-up among registered voters, McCain is 2
points ahead of Obama, within the margin of error; he beats Clinton by
6 points.
McCain runs ahead of Obama on every issue except health care. The
Arizona senator has a 13-point advantage on Iraq and a 37- point lead
on terrorism. He also does better on managing the economy. One area
where Obama has a clear edge is on the question of who would bring the
most change in Washington; the Illinois senator has an almost 3-to-1
lead.
``Obama has moved decisively ahead of Clinton, but as a
general-election candidate he has a tougher road to travel in a
campaign against John McCain,'' says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles
Times polling director. McCain is seen as having the right experience
and is ``the person people think could be the strongest leader.''
Our analysis:

1) Senator McCain leads on both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on
general election head-to-head ballot tests.
In the head to head versus Hillary Clinton, John McCain leads by
6-points. (McCain 46% - Clinton 40%.   He leads Obama by 2-points
(McCain 44% - Obama 42%).   And, this survey shows signs that McCain
has a strong base, with around 80% of Republicans supporting him
against either Democratic candidate (79% v. Obama and 84% v. Clinton).

2) Senator McCain's image is very strong and he is well positioned for
the General Election.
•	McCain has the best image of all the candidates.  McCain is viewed
favorably by 61% of voters and unfavorably by 26% of the voters (Net
Positive: +35%).  Obama has the next most favorable image: 61%
favorable to 27% unfavorable (Net Positive: +34%).  Clinton has the
worst image: 51% favorable to 42% unfavorable (Net Positive: +9%).
•	Among critical Independent voters, McCain's image is the strongest
of the three candidates. McCain: 65% favorable – 21% unfavorable;
Obama: 63% favorable – 25% unfavorable; Clinton: 48% favorable – 44%
unfavorable.


3) Senator McCain leads on key issues for the Presidential Candidate.
•	On Leadership: Senator McCain has a 5-point edge over Clinton and a
6-point lead over Obama.
•	On Experience: Senator McCain has a 12-point lead over Clinton and a
31-point lead over Obama.
•	On handling the war in Iraq: McCain has a 16-point lead over Clinton
and a 13-point lead over Obama.
•	On protecting the country from terrorism: McCain has a 27-point lead
over Clinton and a 37-point lead over Obama.
4) On handling the economy: McCain has an 8-point lead over Obama on
handling the economy and a 2-point lead over Obama on handling taxes.