[Vnbiz] Inflation Control

Dan trong.dan at vietcapital.vn
Wed Feb 27 00:20:25 PST 2008 

Lạm phát: Tiền tệ có là nguyên nhân duy nhất?

 






n       <http://www.vneconomy.vn/search.phtml?TextSearch=Tr%C6%B0%C6%A1ng%20Minh%20C%C6%B0%C6%A1ng&auth=on> Trương Minh Cương

 

 

http://vneconomy.vn/?home=detail <http://vneconomy.vn/?home=detail&page=category&cat_name=06&id=fb6b079ec5cb0a> &page=category&cat_name=06&id=fb6b079ec5cb0a 

 

The above is a deep anlysis in inflation to find alternatives to control inflation in Vietnam. 

 

 

  _____  

From: vnbiz-bounces at mail.saigon.com [mailto:vnbiz-bounces at mail.saigon.com] On Behalf Of AD Marshall
Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2008 12:26 PM
To: vnbiz at vietlinks.net
Subject: Re: [Vnbiz] Inflation Control

 

A new UK Financial Times report on VietNam's monetary policy issues (plus a couple related stories):


Vietnam's currency crisis causes headache


By Amy Kazmin in Hanoi 

Published: February 26 2008 22:22 | Last updated: February 26 2008 22:22

A severe shortage of dong, Vietnam's currency, has been causing headaches for foreign businesses in the country as the government tries to control inflation by reining in the supply of notes.

In one sign of the currency crunch, last week Hanoi was forced to give special permission to Morgan Stanley <http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=us:MS>  to pay $217m in dollars for a 10 per cent stake in PetroVietnam Finance Corp, instead of making the payment in dong, as is normally required by law.


EDITOR'S CHOICE


Hanoi <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/daf848f2-cf20-11dc-854a-0000779fd2ac.html>  to lift rates in bid to tame inflation - Jan-30


Young <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/dde5be9a-95fb-11dc-b7ec-0000779fd2ac.html>  Vietnamese lead shift in credit attitudes - Nov-18


Elsewhere, an accountant for a foreign firm tried to convert $30,000 into local currency to pay staff salaries and office rent but was turned away when the bank said it did not have enough dong.

"It's outrageous," said a foreign executive, spurned in a recent attempt to convert dollars to dong. "We are going to have to go to the automatic teller machine and draw money out to pay salaries by hand."

[cut]

Full Report: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39442382-e49c-11dc-a495-0000779fd2ac.html



On Wed, Feb 27, 2008 at 8:17 AM, Dan <trong.dan at vietcapital.vn> wrote:

[ Vietnam Business Forum ]



Dear anh Marc

 

The terms are 14 days and 21 days. These are the normal terms in the interbank market. 

 

Regards,

Dan

 

 

Picture (Device Independent Bitmap)

 

-----Original Message-----
From: vnbiz-bounces at mail.saigon.com [mailto:vnbiz-bounces at mail.saigon.com] On Behalf Of Marc D
Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2008 5:44 PM
To: vnbiz at vietlinks.net
Subject: Re: [Vnbiz] Inflation Control

 

Did the State Bank actually withdraw the money (VND34Billion) out of the economy yet? I heard that, the reserve might have been put into effect by the banks, but the treasury note will only be issued on the 17th of March.

 

Also, I've been hearing that the money the State Bank put back into the market (VND39Billion) is only a temporary move as the term is the 8th of March.

 

Is this correct?

 

 

HR 

 

 

----- Original Message ----

From: Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com>

To: vnbiz at vietlinks.net

Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2008 10:56:01 AM

Subject: Re: [Vnbiz] Inflation Control

 

[ Vietnam Business Forum ]

 

 

 

Thanks for the note, Tu Anh.  I have below (right after this message) a good article written by anh Vu Quang Viet 3 days ago (the same day I posted my first message on this subject) (forwarded to me by anh Doan Viet Hung.  Thanks, Hung).  Anh Viet is a senior economist at the World Bank and an economic adviser for the government of Vietnam (for a long itme now).  This is a very good article, short and succint. 

 

Thanks brother Dan for the interview with anh Le Dang Doanh. 

 

I.   In this message I will go over a couple of points only.  The first point is that I have to agree with Tu Anh that the only sure fact is that the State Bank did pump more money into the market, but its intention is not as clear as I made it to be.  I was attributing to State Bank 

Dr. Cao Sy Kiem's statement, but technically he is not State Bank's governor, so his statements is not the Bank's statement.   But here we have an interesting point to analyze.  Probably not very crucial point in the whole thing, but I think it is beneficial to the entire analysis if we know what the State Bank's real intention is when it does a move. 

 

So please allow me to deviate into an investigative technique that I use into my legal work--the technique of interpreting evidence.  When we have some evidence that appears to be the stupid work of some stupid guy, my first assumption would be: "This guy may not be so stupid as he wants us to believe.  He may be a genius at work.  I just have to find his brilliant plan behind all this stupid-looking evidence."  Most of the time, that assumption turns out to be correct, because most people are too intelligent and not too stupid. 

Many people appear to conclude many inconsistent moves by the State Bank recently as "the bank doesn't know what  it is doing"  or "It does one thing.  That wouldn't work.  It does another thing to fix."  In sum, the conclusion is not very favorable to the State Bank's intelligence.  But I am willing the bet that the minds at work at the State Bank may be much more intelligent than average people, and all the seemingly inconsistent moves may have a brilliant calculation of genius.  My number one rule:  Never under-estimate anyone, respect people's intelligence. 

 

So here is the summary of the State Bank's recent moves written by anh Vu Quang Viet. "Via;c thia:?u thanh khoa:#n trong ha; tha;'ng ngC"n hC ng D'ang tra;­ thC nh kha;'ng hoa:#ng vC, nhC  nF0a;c Via;t Nam D'ang tha;1c hia;n nhia; u ma;%c tiC*u mC"u thua:+n nhau, trong D'C3 ma;%c tiC*u quya:?t lia;t gia:#m la:!m phC!t lC  ma;%c tiC*u ma;i. Trong tua:'n tha;© 3 ca;'a thC!ng 2, ma;%c tiC*u nC y D'F0a;#c tha;1c hia;n trong cha;p ma:/t, cC3 tha; 

  _____  

 nC3i lC  "hF!i qua:# quya:?t" nhF0ng thia:?u cC"n nha:/c ka;9, do D'C3 nhanh chC3ng D'F0a ta;i ha:-u qua:# xa:%u, vC  D'a:?n cua;'i tua:'n ma:%t ngay tC-nh qua:# quya:?t ban D'a:'u. NgC"n hC ng nhC  nF0a;c tD 
  _____  

ng ta;7 la; da;1 tra;/ rC:t va; khoa:#ng 10 ngC n ta;7,  ra;"i tD 
  _____  

ng lC#i sua:%t ma;t chC:t (va:+n cC2n quC! tha:%p so va;i ta;'c D'a; la:!m phC!t hia;n nay) vC  tua:'n qua D'C2i ha; i cC!c ngC"n hC ng thF0F!ng ma:!i mua tC-n phia:?u 20 ngC n ta;7 D'a;"ng D'a; 
  _____  

 rC:t va; . NhF0ng khi cC!c ngC"n hC ng thia:?u thanh khoa:#n, lC#i sua:%t liC*n ngC"n hC ng va; t lC*n, NgC"n hC ng NhC  nF0a;c ma:%t nhua; khC-, tung ra tha;
 trF0a; ng hF!n 33 ngC n ta;7 D'a;"ng vay nga:/n ha:!n. Tha:? lC  xong ma;t cua;c D'C!nh tra;'ng ba; dC9i."   

 

Many other comments on the Internet is similar:  Basically the State Bank tried to reduce the money volume by 10 thousand billion dong by requiring commercial banks to increase its reserves and 20 thousand billion dong by requiring commercial banks to buy treasury notes.  Totally the State Bank withdrew from the market 30 thousand billion dong.  But these actions dried up the money at the commercial banks, so the State Bank had to correct its mistake by pumping back into the market 33 thousand billion dong by using the Dong to buy USD."  In short, "the State Bank withdrew 30 thousand billion dong, saw its mistake and immediately pumped roughly the same amount (33 thousand billion dong) bank.  The State Bank is just clumsy and not very competent in this matter."  Man, you guys are so nice and sweet, but so gullible.  Coincidences that show stupidity are usually not coincident, but brilliant.  What if someone at the State Bank decides that "We will increase the reserve of the commercial banks--to increase banking safety, increase treasury notes--that is good for the government treasury, and stop the slide of the USD to stabilize our export, all in one move--withdrawing money and pumping it right back, but through 3 different channels, and making it look like a quick mistake." 

 

Brothers and sisters, believe what you want, but my rule of thumb is that "Respect others' intelligence, and you will see better."  In addition to that investigative principle, I also have some evidence to back my theory up.   The first evidence is the absence of evidence:  The State Bank did not really tell the wrold why it did what. This may not mean much, but also may mean a lot.  And here are two quotes from the VNExpress article  http://vnexpress.net/Vietnam/Kinh-doanh/2008/02/3B9FF85C/  "Ma;t quan cha;©c ca;'a NgC"n hC ng NhC  nF0a;c cho hay, dia;n bia:?n ta;7 giC! trong tha; i gian ga:'n D'C"y cha;' ya:?u do cung ca:'u trC*n tha;
 trF0a; ng quya:?t D'a;
nh. Theo C4ng nC y, trong tha; i gian ta;i, NgC"n hC ng NhC  nF0a;c va:+n duy trC, cC!c bia;n phC!p a;n D'a;
nh ta;7 giC!, khC4ng D'a; 

  _____  

 gia:#m quC! ma:!nh, song va:+n tuC"n theo dia;n bia:?n tha;1c ta:? trC*n tha;
 trF0a; ng." (Hoanh's emphasis). "TS. Cao Ka;9 KiC*m, thC nh viC*n Ha;i D'a;"ng TC i chC-nh Tia; n ta; qua;'c gia, cho ra:1ng, nC*n duy trC, biC*n D'a; ta;7 giC! a;­ ma;©c 0,25-0,50% vC  cC3 tha; 
  _____  

 nhC-ch thC*m chC:t C-t. Theo nguyC*n tha;'ng D'a;'c NgC"n hC ng NhC  nF0a;c, VND sa:= va:+n tia:?p ta;%c D'C  tD 
  _____  

ng giC! trF0a;c USD, song ta;7 giC! nC*n D'F0a;#c gia;/ a;­ ma;©c trC*n 15.000 D'a; 
  _____  

 trC!nh a:#nh hF0a;­ng D'a:?n xua:%t kha:©u cE©ng nhF0 tD 
  _____  

ng trF0a;­ng kinh ta:? nC3i chung." (Hoanh's emphasis).  And a quote from anh Vu Quang Viet's article: "Gia:#m dC2ng cha:#y D'a:'u tF0 nF0a;c ngoC i ba:1ng cC!ch tD 
  _____  

ng ha;'i sua:%t (ha;'i sua:%t chC-nh lC  giC! nha:1m quC"n bC,nh cung ca:'u ngoa:!i ta; trC*n tha;
 trF0a; ng trong nF0a;c). D ia; u nC y tC"t nhiC*n mC"u thua:+n va;i quya:?t D'a;
nh ca;'a nhC  nF0a;c lC  gia;/ ha;'i sua:%t a;n D'a;
nh D'a; 
  _____  

 phC!t tria; 
  _____  

n xua:%t kha:©u."  (Hoanh's emphasis). 

 

Brothers and sisters, believe what you want.  But I seriously suggest that you believe that the State Bank, the financial leader of the nation, has brilliant minds at work, instead of thinking about the Bank as having only dim-witted people in there.

 

2.  The second point is about the stock market money. It is interesting that anh Vu Quang Viet talked about that money also: "Ma;­ ra;ng cho D'a:'u tF0 a;­ nF0a;c ngoC i D'a:7c bia;t lC  vC o tha;
 trF0a; ng tC i chC-nh (trong 7-9 ta;7 chuya; 

  _____  

n vC o Via;t Nam nD 
  _____  

m 2007, theo tC4i F0a;c D'oC!n, cha; cC3 3 ta;7 lC  vC o D'a:'u tF0 tra;1c tia:?p) do D'C3 tia; n chuya; 
  _____  

n D'a;i D'a; 
  _____  

 mua cha;©ng khoC!n ta:%t nhiC*n lC m tD 
  _____  

ng kha;'i lF0a;#ng tia; n ta; trong na; n kinh ta:?, nhF0ng khC!c va;i D'a:'u tF0 tra;1c tia:?p, khC4ng D'F0a;#c cC!c cC4ng ty bC!n ra cha;©ng khoC!n, hoa:7c cC!c D'a:!i gia na:/m cha;©ng khoC!n D'a:'u tF0 vC o sa:#n xua:%t hC ng hC3a da;
ch va;%, mC  cha;' ya:?u cha:!y D'ua;i theo hC ng hC3a cC3 sa:5n, nhC  D'a:%t vC  cha;©ng khoC!n, lC m toC n ba; tra;­ nC*n bong bC3ng."  (Hoanh's emphasis).  So anh Viet is talking about the inlfation pressure created by the moeny pumped into the stock market by foreign firm.

 

But the domestic money pumped into the stock market is even bigger than foreign money.  And a huge chunk of domestic money was dormant money (in the form of gold and USD hoarding  at home).  This dormant money was pumped in the stock market, generated huge inflation pressure.  

 

I think the huge money pumped into the stock market was busy ballooning the stock market so it didn't generate a lot of inflation pressure in other markets at first, but when the stock price started to go down and the stock market started to shrink seriously around November, December 2007, the shrinking stock market forced real money to flee the stock  market into other markets, thus created huge inflationary pressure that showed up suddenly in Jan 2008.  (Tu Anh, I hope you will eventually agree with me.  Because this point is so clear to me like 2 + 2 is 4.  I can't be mistaken here).

 

3.  The third point is a question:  Everyone is talking about inflation, meaning, we have more money to buy in the market than services and products for sale.  But we also talk about the liquidity crisis at the banks, i.e., banks has\ve no money to move around.  Does this make sense?  How is life inside the bank different from life outside the bank?  Tu Anh, you are so sharp.  Could you please help?  THanks a million.

 

Have a great day!

 

Hoanh

 

 

 

 

_________________

 

Gia:#i quya:?t la:!m phC!t vC  bong bC3ng 

D'C2i ha; i nhia; u hF!n lC  ha:!n cha:? thanh khoa:#n 

                

                VE© Quang Via;t 

 

Via;c thia:?u thanh khoa:#n trong ha; tha;'ng ngC"n hC ng D'ang tra;­ thC nh kha;'ng hoa:#ng vC, nhC  nF0a;c Via;t Nam D'ang tha;1c hia;n nhia; u ma;%c tiC*u mC"u thua:+n nhau, trong D'C3 ma;%c tiC*u quya:?t lia;t gia:#m la:!m phC!t lC  ma;%c tiC*u ma;i. Trong tua:'n tha;© 3 ca;'a thC!ng 2, ma;%c tiC*u nC y D'F0a;#c tha;1c hia;n trong cha;p ma:/t, cC3 tha; 

  _____  

 nC3i lC  "hF!i qua:# quya:?t" nhF0ng thia:?u cC"n nha:/c ka;9, do D'C3 nhanh chC3ng D'F0a ta;i ha:-u qua:# xa:%u, vC  D'a:?n cua;'i tua:'n ma:%t ngay tC-nh qua:# quya:?t ban D'a:'u. NgC"n hC ng nhC  nF0a;c tD 
  _____  

ng ta;7 la; da;1 tra;/ rC:t va; khoa:#ng 10 ngC n ta;7,  ra;"i tD 
  _____  

ng lC#i sua:%t ma;t chC:t (va:+n cC2n quC! tha:%p so va;i ta;'c D'a; la:!m phC!t hia;n nay) vC  tua:'n qua D'C2i ha; i cC!c ngC"n hC ng thF0F!ng ma:!i mua tC-n phia:?u 20 ngC n ta;7 D'a;"ng D'a; 
  _____  

 rC:t va; . NhF0ng khi cC!c ngC"n hC ng thia:?u thanh khoa:#n, lC#i sua:%t liC*n ngC"n hC ng va; t lC*n, NgC"n hC ng NhC  nF0a;c ma:%t nhua; khC-, tung ra tha;
 trF0a; ng hF!n 33 ngC n ta;7 D'a;"ng vay nga:/n ha:!n. Tha:? lC  xong ma;t cua;c D'C!nh tra;'ng ba; dC9i. Tuy tha:? nC3 cE©ng cC3 F0u D'ia; 
  _____  

m lC  NHNN D'C# la:/ng nghe tha;
 trF0a; ng. NhF0ng ba:%t ca;© ma;t cua;c cha;'ng la:!m phC!t nC o cE©ng pha:#i cC3 tra:# giC!. 

 

Ta:!i sao la:!m phC!t la:!i xa:#y ra ta;i ma;©c bC!o D'a;ng D'a; hia;n nay? (NC3i lC  bC!o D'a;ng D'a; ba;­i vC, na:?u khC4ng gia:#m xua;'ng, nC3 sa:= ta:!o ra tC"m lC= la:!m phC!t, cC3 tha; 

  _____  

 D'F0a D'a:?n ba:%t a;n xC# ha;i vC, lao D'a;ng khC4ng D'a;' sa;'ng, la:!i lC m hC ng hC3a D'a:/t D'a; va;i ngF0a; i D'a:'u tF0 nF0a;c ngoC i, do D'C3 lC m ma:%t nia; m tin vC o tha;
 trF0a; ng vC  cha:%m da;©t cua;c D'a; ba; D'a:'u tF0 vC o Via;t Nam).  La:!m phC!t do ma;©c tD 
  _____  

ng tC-n da;%ng, tD 
  _____  

ng tia; n D'C# rC5 ta;+ lC"u, C-t nha:%t lC  ta;+ nD 
  _____  

m 2004 khi ma;©c tD 
  _____  

ng tia; n lC*n D'a:?n 25%, ra;"i ma;i D'C"y nha:#y va; t ta;i 35-40%, nhF0ng nhC  nF0a;c va:+n C!n binh ba:%t D'a;ng cho D'a:?n ma;i D'C"y. 

NhF0ng ta:!i sao tC-n da;%ng la:!i tD 

  _____  

ng nhF0 va:-y? D C3 lC  vC, nha;/ng ma;%c tiC*u trong ka:? hoa:!ch D'a:7t ra D'C# D'F0a ta;i tC,nh tra:!ng trC*n: 

 

1)  Ma;©c D'a:'u tF0 ca;'a ngC"n sC!ch vC  ca;'a cC4ng ty nhC  nF0a;c quC! la;n D'F0a ta;ng D'a:'u tF0 lC*n trC*n 40% GDP nhF0ng thF0a; ng vC, thia:?u hia;u qua:# vC  khC4ng D'C:ng cha; nC*n ma;©c tD 

  _____  

ng GDP cha; a;­ ma;©c ta:!m ga; i lC  pha:%n kha;­i, 

 

2)  Ma;­ ra;ng cho D'a:'u tF0 a;­ nF0a;c ngoC i D'a:7c bia;t lC  vC o tha;
 trF0a; ng tC i chC-nh (trong 7-9 ta;7 chuya; 

  _____  

n vC o Via;t Nam nD 
  _____  

m 2007, theo tC4i F0a;c D'oC!n, cha; cC3 3 ta;7 lC  vC o D'a:'u tF0 tra;1c tia:?p) do D'C3 tia; n chuya; 
  _____  

n D'a;i D'a; 
  _____  

 mua cha;©ng khoC!n ta:%t nhiC*n lC m tD 
  _____  

ng kha;'i lF0a;#ng tia; n ta; trong na; n kinh ta:?, nhF0ng khC!c va;i D'a:'u tF0 tra;1c tia:?p, khC4ng D'F0a;#c cC!c cC4ng ty bC!n ra cha;©ng khoC!n, hoa:7c cC!c D'a:!i gia na:/m cha;©ng khoC!n D'a:'u tF0 vC o sa:#n xua:%t hC ng hC3a da;
ch va;%, mC  cha;' ya:?u cha:!y D'ua;i theo hC ng hC3a cC3 sa:5n, nhC  D'a:%t vC  cha;©ng khoC!n, lC m toC n ba; tra;­ nC*n bong bC3ng.     

Mua;'n lC m gia:#m la:!m phC!t ta:%t pha:#i cC3 bia;n phC!p lC m gia:#m kha;'i lF0a;#ng tia; n ta; trC*n tha;
 trF0a; ng, nhF0ng nhF0 tha:? va:+n khC4ng D'a;' vC  khi quC! D'a; la:!i tra;­ thC nh nguy hia; 

  _____  

m. CC!c bia;n phC!p thC, ha:'u nhF0 cC!c nhC  kinh ta:? D'a; u bia:?t: 

 

1)  NC"ng lC#i sua:%t a;­ ma;©c cao hF!n la:!m phC!t D'a; 

  _____  

 thu hC:t tia; n vC o ngC"n hC ng, vC  ta:%t nhiC*n via;c nC y sa:= lC m gia:#m D'a:'u tF0 vC  nhu ca:'u tia; n va;'n. D ia; u nC y chF0a D'F0a;#c lC m D'a:?n nF!i vC, cha:!m vC o ma;%c tiC*u D'a:!t D'F0a;#c ta;'c D'a; phC!t tria; 
  _____  

n kinh ta:? cao (va;i D'a:'u tF0 ca;'a nhC  nF0a;c cao, D'a; 
  _____  

 lC#i sua:%t cao D'F0a D'a:?n thia:?u ha;%t ngC"n sC!ch la;n hF!n, do D'C3 ma;©c in tia; n la:!i la;n). LC#i sua:%t hia;n nay va:+n cC2n C"m so va;i ta;'c D'a; la:!m phC!t nC*n khC4ng cC3 sa;©c thu hC:t tia; n ga;-i. 

 

2)  Ca:/t gia:#m D'a:'u tF0 ca;'a nhC  nF0a;c. Via;c nC y cE©ng D'a;ng D'a:?n ka:? hoa:!ch cC3 ta;'c D'a; tD 

  _____  

ng trF0a;­ng cao. 

 

3)  Tha;1c hia;n cC!c bia;n phC!p trung hC2a nhF0 bC!n tC-n phia:?u ngC"n hC ng D'a; 

  _____  

 thu tia; n va; NgC"n hC ng NhC  nF0a;c.   

 

4)  Gia:#m dC2ng cha:#y D'a:'u tF0 nF0a;c ngoC i ba:1ng cC!ch tD 

  _____  

ng ha;'i sua:%t (ha;'i sua:%t chC-nh lC  giC! nha:1m quC"n bC,nh cung ca:'u ngoa:!i ta; trC*n tha;
 trF0a; ng trong nF0a;c). D ia; u nC y tC"t nhiC*n mC"u thua:+n va;i quya:?t D'a;
nh ca;'a nhC  nF0a;c lC  gia;/ ha;'i sua:%t a;n D'a;
nh D'a; 
  _____  

 phC!t tria; 
  _____  

n xua:%t kha:©u. 

 

Va:%n D'a; lC  ka:?t ha;#p D'a;"ng tha; i cC!c bia;n phC!p nC y cC9ng ma;t lC:c vC  D'ia; u cha; nh tC9y theo tC,nh hC,nh tha;1c ta:?. D ia; u cha; nh nhF0 tha:? nC o tC9y thua;c vC o tC,nh hC,nh tha;1c ta:? mC  cC3 la:= cha; cC3 chC-nh quya; n ma;i na:/m D'F0a;#c na:?u thu tha:-p D'a:'y D'a;' vC  ka;
p tha; i thC4ng tin. Cha; gia:#m thanh khoa:#n ba:1ng bC!n tC-n phia:?u sa:= bC3p ngay ca; ha; ng ngC"n hC ng thF0F!ng ma:!i tF0 vC  khu va;1c tF0 nhC"n vC, cC4ng ty nhC  nF0a;c cC3 la:= sa:= C*m tha:/m vC, D'F0a;#c F0u D'C#i. 

  

CE©ng ca:'n nC3i thC*m va; via;c ca:'n thia:?t tD 

  _____  

ng ha;'i sua:%t. D ia; u nC y khC4ng tha; 
  _____  

 trC!nh D'F0a;#c na:?u nhF0 mua;'n gia:#i quya:?t la:!m phC!t vC  na:?u nhF0 khC4ng mua;'n cC3 bia;n phC!p ngD 
  _____  

n ca:#n dC2ng cha:#y tF0 ba:#n nF0a;c ngoC i vC o tha;
 trF0a; ng tC i chC-nh. NC3i D'a:?n tD 
  _____  

ng ha;'i sua:%t lC  nC3i D'a:?n via;c ta;1 do hC3a hF!n mua bC!n ngoa:!i ta; trC*n tha;
 trF0a; ng Via;t Nam. Tuy nhiC*n khC3 cC3 tha; 
  _____  

 tiC*n D'oC!n trF0a;c D'F0a;#c ha;'i sua:%t a;­ ma;©c nC o cC3 tha; 
  _____  

 D'ia; u hC2a D'F0a;#c cung ca:'u ngoa:!i ta; vC  D'a;"ng tha; i khC4ng ta:!o kha;'ng hoa:#ng trC*n tha;
 trF0a; ng xua:%t nha:-p kha:©u hC ng hC3a. Do D'C3 va:+n cC3 tha; 
  _____  

 ca:'n pha:#i kia; 
  _____  

m soC!t dC2ng cha:#y tF0 ba:#n a;­ ma;©c D'a; nha:%t D'a;
nh. Cha:3ng ha:!n dC9 khC4ng ca:%m ngC"n hC ng thF0F!ng ma:!i, ngC"n hC ng NhC  nF0a;c, nF!i cC3 kha:# nD 
  _____  

ng cung ca:%p thanh khoa:#n la;n nha:%t, cC3 tha; 
  _____  

 cha; chuya; 
  _____  

n D'a;i ra D'a;"ng Via;t Nam nha;/ng trF0a; ng ha;#p D'a:7c bia;t nhF0 D'a:'u tF0 tra;1c tia:?p hay D'a:'u tF0 giC!n tia:?p nhF0ng a;­ ma;©c D'a; chia:?n lF0a;#c ta;©c lC  a;­ ta;7 la; D'C!ng ka; 
  _____  

 vC  va;i tha; i gian sa;­ ha;/u ta;'i thia:?u, khC4ng D'F0a;#c bC!n la:!i trC*n tha;
 trF0a; ng. 

DC2ng va;'n tC i chC-nh ta;+ nF0a;c ngoC i lC  con dao hai lF0a;!i D'a;'i va;i na; n kinh ta:?, D'a:7c bia;t D'a;'i va;i na; n kinh ta:? chF0a cC3 cF! cha:? D'ia; u hC nh vC  kia; 

  _____  

m soC!t chC:ng. Khi chC:ng D'a; vC o nhia; u nhF0 hia;n nay, na; n kinh ta:? ba;i tha;1c. Khi chC:ng thC!o cha:!y ma;­ D'a:'u cho cua;c kha;'ng hoa:#ng a;­ chC"u C trF0a;c D'C"y, na; n kinh ta:? D'C3i la:#. D C# cC3 lC:c Ma;9 vC  IMF ca; D'a;ng ma:!nh ma:= cho ta;1 do dC2ng cha:#y va;'n tC i chC-nh, nha:1m bia:?n thC nh nguyC*n ta:/c ba:/t bua;c cho cC!c thC nh viC*n IMF, nhF0ng sau D'C3 D'C# pha:#i rC:t la:!i vC, cua;c kha;'ng hoa:#ng a;­ chC"u C nD 
  _____  

m 1997 vC  sau D'C3 lC  cua;c kha;'ng hoa:#ng a;­ Nam Ma;9. MC# Lai lC  nF0a;c D'a;c nha:%t lC:c D'C3 C!p da;%ng cC!c bia;n phC!p kia; 
  _____  

m soC!t do D'C3 trC!nh cho na; n kinh ta:? ca;'a ha; ba;
 D'a:©y vC o kha;'ng hoa:#ng tra:'m tra; ng nhF0 Indonesia vC  ThC!i Lan. 

 

CC3 D'F0a;#c ma;t chC-nh sC!ch kia; 

  _____  

m soC!t dC2ng cha:#y tF0 ba:#n lC  D'ia; u ca:'n thia:?t. 

 

ToC n ba; nha;/ng hoa:!t D'a;ng cha;'ng la:!m phC!t sa:= cC3 a:#nh hF0a;­ng D'a:?n tha;
 trF0a; ng cha;©ng khoC!n vC  tha;
 trF0a; ng nhC  D'a:%t nhF0ng D'C"y lC  D'ia; u ca:'n lC m. Thanh khoa:#n quC! nhia; u D'C# nhanh chC3ng D'a:©y khai khu va;1c nC y thC nh bong bong. RiC*ng khu va;1c cha;©ng khoC!n do a:#nh hF0a;­ng kha;'ng hoa:#ng tC i chC-nh ca;'a Ma;9 D'C# lC m xa:9p bong bC3ng ma;t pha:'n D'C!ng ka; 

  _____  

, vC  hia;n nay a;­ cha; sa;' a;­ ma;©c D'a; khoa:#ng 600-700 lC  tF0F!ng D'a;'i ha;#p lC=, vC  dC9 cC3 xua;'ng hF!n tha:? cE©ng khC4ng ca:'n sa;1 can thia;p ca;'a nhC  nF0a;c. Via;c can thia;p ma;i D'C"y cho phC©p mua ca; pha:'n ba:1ng D'C4 la (hC nh D'a;ng D'a:'u tiC*n lC  giC:p da:'u khC- D'i vC o hoa:!t D'a;ng tC i chC-nh, ma;t hoa:!t D'a;ng hoC n toC n trC!i ngC nh) lC  quya:?t D'a;
nh sai la:'m vC, nC3 sa:= D'C4 la hC3a na; n kinh ta:?, lC m ma:%t kha:# nD 
  _____  

ng D'ia; u hC nh tia; n ta; ca;'a NHNN vC  D'a;"ng D'C4 la D'C3 khC4ng nha:%t thia:?t khC4ng cha:!y D'ua;i D'a;"ng Via;t Nam D'a; 
  _____  

 D'a; vC o hai tha;
 trF0a; ng quC! nC3ng nhF0 nhC  D'a:%t vC  cha;©ng khoC!n. LC m da:9p bong bC3ng nhC  D'a:%t lC  D'ia; u ca:'n lC m, vC  D'ia; u nC y D'ang cha; D'a;#i hC nh D'a;ng C!p da;%ng thua:? nhC  D'a:%t a;­ ma;©c ha;#p lC= vC  thua:? chC*nh la;ch lC#i trC*n la;#i nhua:-n mua bC!n nhC  D'a:%t, C-t nha:%t ngang ba:1ng thu nha:-p doanh nghia;p khC!c. Da:9p bong bC3ng nhC  D'a:%t cE©ng ca:'n chC-nh sC!ch khuya:?n khC-ch D'a:'u tF0 vC o xC"y da;1ng nhC  ca;-a, vC  lC m gia:#m via;c D'a:'u cF! D'a:%t ba:1ng thua:? D'a:7c bia;t D'a;'i va;i ngF0a; i mua quya; n sa;- da;%ng D'a:%t nhF0ng khC4ng sa;- da;%ng vC o kinh doanh, nha:1m D'a:'u cF!. 

 

23-2-08 

 

On Mon, Feb 25, 2008 at 4:20 PM, Nguyen Tu Anh <tuanh14 at yahoo.com> wrote: 

> [ Vietnam Business Forum ] 

> 

> 

> Dear anh Hoanh & CACC, 

>   

> I am sorry, I can not reply quickly. Nevertheless, I am very interested in our open discussion. I know that, there are many experts in our forum and I want to learn their points of view on this hot issue.   

> Anh Hoanh, I absolutely agree with you about the fact that "The State Bank of Vietnam did pump in the Dong into the market". However your statement "The State Bank of Vietnam did pump in the Dong into the market, to keep the rate of exchange favorable to the USD to help export" is not fact any more, it is your presumption. 

>   

> In fact, raising ratio of required reserve (RRR) is the first response of State bank to high inflation. As a result, many commercial banks do not have enough liquidity to meet new legal reserves, in return they have to mobilize more or they have to borrow from State bank at a penalty rate. You can see that, State bank charges 15%/month on those loans while the highest rate that a commercial bank can offer for depositors now is only 12%/month. This means that the purpose of supplying more money for commercial banks IS NOT to keep the rate of exchange favorable to the USD. A slight depreciation of VND against USD is side-effect of this measure and not a purpose at all. 

>   

> In the face of high interest rate of mobilization and penalty rate on borrowings from State Bank, commercial banks are forced to cut down their credit expansion. Consequently price level likely decreases. 

>   

> Second, I do agree with policy advisers in Vietnam that the main cause of inflation in Vietnam is from demand side. Therefore, raising interest rate is the right remedy at the moment. Higher interest rate will reduce supply of credit as well as consumption, then inflation. 

>   

> On the other hand, In a country where investment accounted for nearly 40% of GDP like Vietnam, a normal increase in interest rate in a short term never hurts the economy much. That's why I don't believe that higher interest rate can cause "recession" in Vietnam's economy at this time. 

>   

> In relation to the stock market. I think I have made my point clear enough. The main point is that redistribution of wealth in principle does not change price level. 

>   

> Finally, huge influx of FDI can cause so-called "Dutch Disease" in Vietnam's economy, as I already mentioned in previous mail. Inflation is one of main consequences of that phenomenon. 

>   

> Wish you all the best. 

>   

> Tu Anh. 

>   

-- 

Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD 

Washington DC 

 

 

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