[Vnbiz] Global food riots turn deadly

Sat Apr 12 09:09:19 PDT 2008

Dear Anh Hoanh and CACC:

See below

On Sat, Apr 12, 2008 at 11:01 AM, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com> wrote:

> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>
>
> Dear CACC,
>
> Below is an article on the  Washington Times (April 10, 2008) about global
> food riots.  VNExpress also has a number of pictures on these riots at
>
> http://vnexpress.net/Vietnam/The-gioi/Anh/2008/04/3BA013AC/
>
>
> Vietnam is very lucky that we haven't got any riot yet, and let's hope
> that we won't.
>

Terrible. This is what we need to be working on, not making sure that
there's an mp-3 player in every pocket.

>
>

I hope we don't, am sure we won't, am glad the government allowed the
farmers to plant a third crop, perhaps they should encourage a third crop
every year for a "strategic reserve". I wonder if International
Organizations could subsidize farmers efforts to build reserve capacities,
that could be released in times of global famine.  Pointing to your recent
statements that Vietnam should use rice as part of its diplomacy with the
world, ie showing it to be a good neighbor and such.  Not sure how that
would impact the land though; it's long-term viability, I suspect not well.

> All the economic issues we are facing currently are global in nature:
>

100%, Hallelujah, Couldn't agree more, we need new models and new
understandings of growth, more human to human service activity, less things
but those required to service our essential mental and physical well-being.

> Food shortage due to draught and water shortage, gasoline price increases
> (due mainly to OPEC)
>

It is demand, not OPEC, fact is that there is very little reserve capacity
and this is because of a decade of rather low prices, and subsequent low
investment in oil infrastructure (where oil companies make a standard
mark-up, 30% I believe, but could be wrong, which is extraordinary by any
MNC standards).

Anyway OPEC has continueed to say that a $50 barrell is their target, just
very little reserve capacity, and a quickening growth in demand .  I believe
the Saudi's alone have ramped up capacity by a third over the last few
years.  This is a demand push inflation, with speculators adding greese to
move it along further, both by speculating and pushing a fall in the dollar
and rise in commodities.  Commodities very much might be in a long term bull
market where higher input prices are here to stay.  As soon as the iron ore
producers got through raising prices by 65% a month or two ago they said
that further rises were necessary.  Todays Vietnam news stated that imports
had reached 75% of yearly expectations in the first quarter alone, where, I
believe 39% of that number was imports by FIE's (Foreign Invested
Enterprises) therefore it seems that higher prices will be feeding into
product pricing and perhaps even dampening exports.

> , a global recession (due mainly to the US economic sluggishness, but I
> am not sure whether it has other causes like global economic cycle).
> OK, I'll leave that alone, I believed you qualified with global cycle,
> and, yes, I continue to argue that we have hit a shift, but my voice grows
> hoarse, as I am sure you hope...
>

> Right now inflation is secondary problem.  As you see in this article,
> food security is the primary concern.  Then inflation.
>

Amen. Hallelujah, rejoice.  Yes, yes, yes.

>
> And of course we have the threat of cholera.  I wonder why Vietnam has so
> many serious health threats in recent years.
>

Did you read the LAwrence Livermore article I sent yesterday, I believe it
mentions some issues.  Not Vietnam per se, but a spike in "diseases".

> Are the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development
> really doing their job?
>

I should imagine that there are many that are trying to do their job as best
they can within the confines of the organizational culture. In some
countries, with trying times as these, there might be calls to remove
ministers and other such people, but then who would replace them?  Would the
tough decisions that have to be made be made an easier by such a practice, I
suspect not. It is not the ministers who need changing. Continuing forward
with the governments policies regarding public administration reform,
financial management reforms, such as electronic payments to bank accounts,
and other such intitiatives might seem worth accelerating.  I think they
have been moving in the right direction with that.  There was an article in
the VN news, yesterday, I believe, that if there were a staff to manage
public projects down to the Village level, then there wouldn't be the human
resources avaialble until 2020 to accomplish such a goal.

What about taxation?  I think everyone knows that most local companies
simply pay the tax man a little money on the side for a lower assessment.
How could that be tackled?  Then perhaps the goverment would have the
revenues to set more ambitious plans.  Frankly, taxation is a duty.  If you
benefit from the roads, the sewers, the electricty grid, and all of the
other intangibles that society has provided you, why should you not pay your
taxes.  It is the honorable thing to do.  Perhaps, stronger movements, along
the model of South Korea toward strengthening e-government would allay
frustrations by the people regarding getting things done through
bureaucractic channels, and a proper PR campaign coupled to this might
convince people of their responsibility to do the right thing and pay their
taxes.  Cleaner government processes and then shaming everyone to do the
right thing, to do what is best for the nation.  I don't know, a little
piece of woods in the mountains starts sounding better each passing day:

"I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, to front only
the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to
teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived"   Henry
David Thoreau; Walden

Craig

>
> Have a great day!
>
> Hoanh
> _____________
>
>
>
> http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080410/FOREIGN/401836215/1001
>  Global food riots turn deadly
>
> By David R. Sands <dsands at washingtontimes.com>
> April 10, 2008
>
>
> DESPERATE TIMES: Men accused of looting near the presidential palace in
> Port-au-Prince are put in a police vehicle in Haiti yesterday. The rise in
> global food prices has caused thievery and riots, as well as fatalities.
> ------------------------------
>
> Anger over spiraling world food prices is becoming increasingly violent.
>
> Deadly clashes over higher costs for staple foods have broken out in
> Egypt, Haiti and several African states, and an international food expert
> yesterday warned of more clashes with no short-term relief in sight.
>
> "World food prices have risen 45 percent in the last nine months and there
> are serious shortages of rice, wheat and [corn]," Jacques Diouf, head of the
> Rome-based U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said at a major
> conference in New Delhi yesterday.
>
> "There is a risk that this unrest will spread in countries where 50 to 60
> percent of income goes to food," he said.
>
> U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued a personal appeal for calm in
> Haiti yesterday. U.N. peacekeepers were called to protect the residence of
> President Rene Preval from rioters protesting sharp increases in the prices
> of food and fuel. At least five people have been reported killed in
> disturbances since last week after the cost of rice doubled and gas prices
> rose a third time since February.
>
> A supermarket, several gas station marts and a government rice warehouse
> were looted, the Associated Press reported.
>
>  *Video:* Haitian leader's pleas fail to stop riots
>
> Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif this week promised concessions to
> workers in the industrial city of Mahalla al-Kobra after two days of rioting
> over rising food prices left one protester dead.
>
> The clashes were described as the most serious anti-government
> demonstrations since 1977 riots erupted over soaring bread prices.
>
> The FAO has reported popular unrest over rising food prices in Burkina
> Faso, Cameroon, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Mozambique, Bolivia and
> Uzbekistan, among other countries.
>
> The Philippines, the world's biggest rice importer, moved to head off
> protests after global prices doubled in a year. Financial giant Credit
> Suisse yesterday reported that higher rice prices would cut the country's
> gross domestic product this year by at least 1 percent.
>
> The government of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo tightened controls of
> domestic rice sales and strengthened security at government storehouses to
> prevent hoarding. Anyone convicted of "stealing rice from the people" will
> be thrown in jail, she warned.
>
> U.S. Ambassador Kristie Kenney yesterday said the Bush administration
> would offset any rice shortfall with cuts from other exporters.
>
> World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick said earlier this month that
> nearly three dozen countries face social unrest because of surging food and
> fuel prices. For the countries most at risk, "there is no margin for
> survival," he said.
>
> Josette Sheeran, executive director of the U.N. World Food Program, was in
> Washington last month making an urgent appeal for funds to compensate for
> rising prices.
>
> "We're asking for the world to really think through how we meet the
> emergency needs of the hungry," Ms. Sheeran told The Washington Times.
>
> Even the most repressive regimes are not immune to popular unrest. The
> spark for rioting against the military junta in Burma last year was a rise
> in food and fuel prices after the government abruptly removed subsidies.
>
> International agricultural analysts have seen the crisis building for
> months, spurred by an unusual combination of forces that John Holmes, the
> chief U.N. humanitarian official, this week called a "perfect storm" of
> trends fueling demand, cutting supply and producing higher global grocery
> bills.
>
> Among them: higher fuel prices that make transporting food more expensive
> and encourage farmers to shift from crop production to biofuels; rising food
> demand as China, India and other Asian countries grow wealthier; drought in
> major producers such as Australia; and speculation on major commodities
> markets that staple prices will stay high.
>
> Mr. Holmes predicted at a conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, that
> the situation will spill into the political arena.
>
> "The security implications [of the food crisis] should not be
> underestimated, as food riots are already being reported across the globe,"
> he said. "Current food prices are likely to increase sharply both the
> incidence and depth of food insecurity."
>
> Ms. Sheeran told The Times that her agency was $500 million short for the
> current fiscal year in meeting needs to relieve the global food and fuel
> crises.
>
> "We don't have the buffering space" to cover such sharp increases in the
> cost of basic staples, she said.
>
> Analysts say the price increases are across the board, not focused on one
> crop or market as in past commodity patterns.
>
> A survey released by the Washington-based International Food Policy
> Research Institute found that the price of staple food has risen by 80
> percent since 2005, including a 40 percent surge last year alone. The real
> price of rice is at a 19-year high and the price of wheat on world markets
> is at a 28-year high.
>
> "The realities of demography, changing diets, energy prices and biofuels,
> and climate change suggest that high — and volatile — food prices will be
> with us for years to come," said study author Joachim von Braun.
>
> It is not just the poor who have taken to the streets over rising food
> prices.
>
> Workers at the U.N. Relief and Works Agency in Jordan staged a one-day
> strike Monday to demand higher pay to cover rising food and gas prices. The
> action closed 177 schools for Palestinian refugees.
>
> The U.N. staffers say they are prepared to walk off the job again next
> week if they do not get a pay raise.
>
> *Surging prices have led to food riots and protests around the globe.*
>
> EGYPT — Violent protests this week over soaring food prices left one dead
> and 15 injured.
>
> HAITI — Five people were killed and about 20 injured in a week of
> protests, including an attack on U.N. peacekeepers.
>
> CAMEROON — Violent food riots in February claimed 40 lives, and protests
> continue this month.
>
> BURKINA FASO — A general strike is called this week over rising food
> prices, after protests earlier this year led to hundreds of arrests.
>
> PHILIPPINES — The government beefs up security at rice warehouses to
> prevent theft and hoarding.
>
> JORDAN — U.N. aid workers stage a one-day strike for more pay to cover
> food and fuel price increases.
>
> BURMA — Cuts in fuel and food subsidies sparked massive anti-government
> protests last summer.
>
> • *This article is based in part on wire service reports.*
>
> --
> Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
> Washington DC
>
>
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