[Vnbiz] Ministries participate in fighting inflation

[Tran Dinh Hoanh]

Dear anh Craig,

The reason I mention about the US government is that I am familiar with the
US government's work and ability (and I can't say much about Europe, because
I am not knowledgeable enough about Europe).  Nothing against the US
government in particular.  I can only talk about things and places I feel
competent about.

My problem is that most of the time, people think and work under the
assumption that governments and experts from advanced countries know that
they are doing, so if you are in a developing country, your best shot is to
simply follow international experts, (be they World Bank or ADB or
whatever).  And every time a developing country does something that is not
what the experts want in general, the immediate reaction is that "they are
reverting to the old Commie days"  or "The conservative soliciasts are back"
or "They are so behind the time, with straw-mud huts ."  (There are all real
examples).

Mind you, I happen to believe that only the homeowner knows exactly what
best for his home.  Experts are there for consulting works, but the
homeowner must be able to make his own decision for its best interest.

In my own experience, when you come up with a truly outstanding solution,
chances are all the experts will go against it or dismiss it as nothing so
outstanding. Most experts will come up with averagely good solutions, not
outstanding solutions.  I just want all our brothers and sisters to be
confident in our own ability to excel and confident in our own work, even in
the face opposition from many.  When we solve a crisis situation, we don't
have the luxury of being shaky.

My experience is that whenever you have a truly outstanding solution, most
people will not be able to see it, just because it is truly outstanding.
Most people can only see average mainstream solutions.

Through this dollar crisis, I have discovered so many outstanding minds int
he Vietnamese government.  Their solutions may not be understood deply
enough for others, but in my judgment is the best solution for Vietnam,
considering everything going around the region and the world, and the
future.  I am very confident about that.  Whoever have doubt, just please
mark my words and watch how things will play out gradually.

One interesting thing about all this is that the entire nation has been
switching their mind to the mood of fighting a war.  That is the best
Vietnamese operation mode I have always hoped to see.  We Vietnamese are
displaying to the world how good we can be in fighting a war, including a
war against inflation and a worldwide recession.
We will solicit advices from experts, but we will come up with our own
solutions.

I haven't got a chance to go over the technical content of your message,
Craig.  Please give me some time.

Have a great day!

Hoanh
On Fri, Apr 11, 2008 at 10:53 AM, Craig Stevenson <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>
>
> Anh Hoanh:
>
> Do you see Phong as representative of the US government, is that the
> reason for your preoccupation with the US government.  Or rather would it be
> a rather trite rallying point around which you can manipulate imagery to
> strengthen your perspectives in some quarters.                    Just
> wondering?
>
> US government and ITS problems are that the government turned its back on
> the people to be the dumping ground of currency peggers where the media has
> boggled the minds of the citizenry to be oveconsumptive, deluded morons as
> lobbyists have riven the seat of government from the hand of the people and
> placed it in the lap of the money-crazed financiers who expropriate the
> wealth of the people for their own selfish benefit.  Have no fear as my
> generation will take it back.
>
> Next, there is neither an implicit nor explicit VALUE of the dollar.  In a
> world not manipulated by central banks, currencies rise and fall.  Where
> intervention in currency (and capital) markets has been a practice, we reap
> the result which is excessive monetary growth, the reckless development of
> overcapacity in some countries (and most industries within them) which
> deprives other developing nations of their rightful share of value-added FDI
> and productive capability (on purpose I might add), and increasing inflation
> and recessionary (even deflationary) bubbles due to eratic capital flows
> that result from these manipulative, yet purposeful, activities.  Movements
> in Russia, and Venezuela, to bring the commanding heights of the economy
> back under the control of national regimes might herald trends around the
> corner were we not careful in addressing the root causes, not the root
> misconstrued causes, of these problems.
>
> In a balanced financially globalized world, peggers, as originally
> envisioned, would spend thus helping other nations, like Vietnam, to grow.
> Peggers are walking on dangerous ground and I am surprised that this level
> of discourse has not raised more eyebrows (although perhaps some are raised
> now, and I suspect, for all the wrong, cliches/reasons).  When a currency
> goes out it must return for it to mean something.  Some may see mounds of
> cheap plates, plastic bowls, DVD players, and Digital cameras as a benefit
> (ie the US does consume too much, but not for the reasons you see, but
> rather for the development of bridges and roads and skyscrapers in a few
> select developing nations to the detriment of all and a much less fair
> distribution of growth across the world).
>
> In a system that benefits the wealthy, and a few select and privelaged
> developing nations, do not be surprised at the eventual backlash that such
> policies are leading to.
>
> Might the continueed reliance on pegging be the cause of excess capital in
> the US via the purchase of treasuries and other US assets which forced down
> interest rates and pushed excessive housing speculation in the US?
>
> Might such continueed pegging be necessary for a world productive system
> which is predicated upon ever higher levels of consumption for its
> conception of growth?
>
> Might the Chinese and other peggers have actually provided the financing
> for US operations in Iraq via such currency manipulation policies?
>
> Were they against such operations, why would they continue to fund such
> operations, but for that it benefited them, and few others to do so.  But I
> thought that they were principled, that things were changing in this new era
> of globalization, I thought that things were going to be different as weight
> shifts East from West.  All I have to say is be very careful, as the
> American people may wake up to the fact that piles of subsidized things
> might not be worth what was written in the small print.
>
> Without movement away from such manipulative free trade policies I suspect
> the world might be surprised at a US that reindustrializes itself (after all
> the US is the 4th most populous nation and there are plenty of lower skilled
> Americans who could and would be able to work in factories).  Finally, I
> suspect the world underestimates the willingness among Americans to "suffer"
> for the greater and longer term good, despite desire by American elites to
> maintain their privelages over the masses. An opposing argument is that
> domestic consumption is rising in currency pegging nations, and I would say,
> ex out capital investment, ie the continued growth in capacity development,
> and exports, and where does that leave us.  It leaves us at very little
> domestic consumption related to a recklessly disproportionate amount of
> productive capability. Essentially an overly mercantilist adventure which
> may just leave many marooned on a deserted island.
>
> Exasperatedly,
>
> Craig
>
> --
> Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
> Washington DC
>
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