[Vnbiz] Ministries participate in fighting inflation

Thu Apr 10 08:29:13 PDT 2008

Dear Anh Hoanh and CACC:

Well, where to start.  I am not a big fan of James Bond movies but I believe
there is a character in them called "Dr. Evil" or something.  Dr Evil is
symbolic of the external actor excuse.  The fact is that we are all
factors.  The choices we make, the directions of our passions and desires,
the hopes for our futures, the decisions we make in the present.  I believe
that acting in the moment is necessary, assuming we don't accept old models
to base our present decisions upon.  Again, the comfortable thing, the thing
we feel we know best, is to base our present actions on our past
experiences.  If this globalization requires a nimble and flexible approach,
if the speed at which things are coming at us is accelerating, if to excel,
as businesses are told, we need the flexibility to jettison those business
units/strategies/models upon which our past to recent success has been built
than we need do more than simply act in the moment.  We have to throw our
net forward, we need to question the utility of our present understanding of
how things work, we need to be beyond the curve mentally before we reach the
curve physically.

NASA developed a technique called Horizon Mission Methodology, where they
would take an impossible scenario, such as getting to Jupiter in a day.  The
would then work backwords and state what were the technological feats which
would have to be realized to accomplish this mission.  What would be the
ordering of each of those subsequent advances (in some way perhaps a
disruptive innovation)?  What would be the opportunity, what would we need
to work on, in between each of those milestones (in some way perhaps a
sustaining innovation)?

Now FAR shocks or NEAR shocks are relative terms and mean little without
further definition.  Whether near or far what is certain is we, humanity,
can not continue to sit on our hands expecting the best, when it is quite
clear that trends prove otherwise (from pollution to water, from air to the
quality of our soils and, even, the sustainability of our economic
models) .  Anyway....
Ability to control more, less absolute control of everything, greater desire
and absolute ability to consume more things, the quickening pace with which
the world will do just that, and the quickening rate at which we will prove
trends correct, the quickening rate at which we will defile more of the
other important forms of capital, while we humans move along with doing more
in the same ways, we base our judgements upon what we knew yesterday,
forgetting what we need to know tomorrow which seems little more than mere
abstractions to our poorly visioned minds.

Craig

On Thu, Apr 10, 2008 at 10:37 AM, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com> wrote:

> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
>
>
> Dear anh Craig & CACC,
>
> Thanks for the note, Craig.  I think everyone is clear abut my position on
> this issue.  But just in case there is some misunderstanding somewhere,
> please allow me to clarify my position a little more.
> I am talking about the government's ability to fight off this inflation
> problem and avert an immediate economic crisis NOW.  I am not talking about
> anything in the far future.  I am not talking about any other issue, such as
> governance transparency, human rights, so on and so forth.
>
> It means, in my judgment, so far the government has done a very good
> leadership job to mobilizing the country into the fight, and a very good
> technical job in its measures to control banking safety, control monetary
> circulation, control inflation, increase production and export.  In my
> opinion, that is a superb job.
> The word "NOW" up there means everything needs to be changed according to
> circumstances.  Tomorrow is not now.   When you fight a battle, you are not
> supposed that anything will stay the same.  If things change tomorrow and
> require changes in some measures, I expect that to happen. If the government
> doesn't change them then, it may expect to hear my complaint. So I don't
> want anyone to tell me later: "Hey, you support that measure, why do you
> complain about it now?"  My response then would be: "Hey, that was then, and
> this is now."
>
> The word "NOW" also means that measures used now for this immediate
> problem may not be good at all for future economic long-term economic
> growth.  Short-term crisis management is different from long-term growth
> management.  So some of these measures will have to be changed and dropped
> later on.  We will talk about that when we cross that bridge.
>
> So in sum, all I am talking about this inflation issue is just that--the
> government's ability to manage this inflation problem for now.  So if this
> afternoon I send a message complaining about the leadership's conduct on
> something else, please don't say that I am wishy-washy.
>
> Have a great day!  Oh, for Craig, yes, you are absolutely right that there
> will be shocks coming , that is the nature of economic problems, especially
> when the problems have external actors not within your control.  We just
> have to anticipate them and react swiftly.
>
> Have a great day!
>
>
> Hoanh
>
> On Thu, Apr 10, 2008 at 9:16 AM, Craig Stevenson <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> >
> >
> > Dear CACC:
> >
> > The government is doing what it can, what it thinks best, we can second
> > guess on this issue, at the moment, yet it is pointless. What is not
> > pointless is a broader dialogue to try to navigate the trials that we will
> > face in the (near) future (we being all Humanity).  To believe that there
> > aren't further such shocks on the horizon, and that soon all will be well
> > again, perpetually as well as in the past, is stupid.
> >
> > Anh Hoanh has obviously made his mind up on these issues, or more
> > precisely what I suspect to be what he believes is important vis-a-vis
> > stability.  This is evidenced by his unmoderated support over these last few
> > months, and as a leader of this group, we must respect his efforts.  I might
> > not (always) agree with what he says, but I will support unto death his
> > right to say it.
> >
> > Craig
> >
> >
> > On Thu, Apr 10, 2008 at 12:09 AM, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com>
> > wrote:
> >
> > > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> > >
> > >
> > > Dear Brother Dung,
> > >
> > > Welcome to the club.  Disagreement is daily food in this family :-)
> > >
> > > But why don't we just wait and see, so we don't have to argue on
> > > theory.  From what I have seen so far in the current inflation issue, I rank
> > > the leadrship ability to stay calm, to take time to hear all arguments and
> > > reasonings, then making an obvious collective decision that gets the entire
> > > government to be active in the fight.  That is no ordinary task.  Most
> > > leaders cannot do that at all.  (If some people can't see it, then they just
> > > can't see it, because they can't comprehend the difficulty of staying calm
> > > and mobilizing your entire team during a crisis).  I have said in a couple
> > > of weeks we will start to see more winning signs.  That is earlier than any
> > > prediction by anyone so far.
> > >
> > > Indeed, one victory sign has come, the stock market has stabilized in
> > > two weeks.  Of course, as in any war, things will be up and down at times.
> > > But it is very clear that this leadership is doing a superb job, much better
> > > than I have expected, and they will win the inflation war big time.  Keep
> > > all my messages for future proofs.
> > >
> > > Have a great day!
> > >
> > > Hoanh
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On Wed, Apr 9, 2008 at 11:35 PM, Dyung Le <dyungle at hotmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > > [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > "Leadership is the kind of skill that sometimes some people can't
> > > > even see it even if it is right in front of their eyes." ?
> > > >
> > > > This statement is so amazing that I have to respectfully disagree!
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Dung Le
> > > > --
> > > > Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
> > > > Washington DC
> > >
> > >
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>
>
>
> --
> Tran Dinh Hoanh, Esq., LLB, JD
> Washington DC
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