[Vnbiz] Key Vietnam economic data - May 7
Phan, Tai
Tai.Phan at ed.gov
Mon May 7 04:32:30 PDT 2007
Monday May 7, 3:44 PM
Key Vietnam economic data - May 7
May 7 (Reuters) - The following table updated Vietnam's key economic indicators with the World Bank's East Asia Update report and government figures released at the end of April.
CENTRAL BANK DLR/DONG RATE
May 7 April 9 May 9, 2006
16,132 16,108 15,957
THE VIETNAM INDEX
983.62 1,041.36 546.40
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INTEREST RATE FOR LENDING
VIETNAMESE DONG Base rate Previous
-- Short-term 8.25 pct/year (fm 01/12/05) 7.80
-- Medium & long-term 8.25 pct/year (fm 01/12/05) 7.80
-- Discount rate 4.5 pct/year (fm 01/12/05) 4.00
(used by the central bank to buy back short-term debt papers)
-- Re-discount rate 6.5 pct/year (from 01/12/05) 6.00
(used by the central bank in lending to commercial banks) DOLLAR: Banks are free to fix rates.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (INFLATION)
April 07 March 07 April 06
Change on year earlier +7.16 +6.80 +7.3
Change on previous month +0.49 -0.22 +0.2
(Source: General Statistics Office (GSO))
TRADE ACCOUNT (in $)
April 07 April 06 Jan-April 07 Jan-April 06 #2007
Exports 3.95 bln 2.97 bln 14.52 bln 11.90 bln 47.54 bln
Imports 4.50 bln 3.58 bln 16.78 bln 12.63 bln 52.20 bln
Balance -550 mln -610 mln -2.26 bln -730 mln -4.66 bln
Note: figures are rounded up # Trade Ministry projections
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
(percent change on a year earlier)
April 07 April 06 Jan-April 07 Jan-April 06 #2007
Output +17.3 +17.7 +16.7 +15.6 +17.1
Of which:
State +4.2 +12.1 +7.4 +8.3 +9.0
Non-state +24.2 +20.1 +20.6 +20.2 +24.1
Foreign-invested +20.1 +20.8 +19.4 +18.0 +18.5
(#: Industry Ministry projections)
ECONOMIC FORECASTS/DATA
(in percentage, except trade deficit and reserves)
*Updated 2007 2006 2005
GDP GROWTH on a year earlier
-- National Assembly +8.2-8.5 +8.17 +8.43
-- GSO +8.17 +8.4
-- ADB +8.3 +8.0 +8.4
-- IMF +7.6 +7.8 +8.4
-- World Bank *+8.0 *+8.2 *+8.5
*(The government estimated Q1 GDP growth at 7.7 percent)
CPI RISE
-- National Assembly #8.1 +6.6 +8.4
-- GSO +6.6 +8.4
-- Finance Ministry +7.0-7.5
-- Trade Ministry +6.5-6.8
-- ADB +6.8 +7.0 +6.0
Core inflation +2.5
-- IMF +7.1 +7.6 +8.3
-- World Bank *+7.0 *+6.6 +8.4
(#: below the GDP growth rate)
(The 2006 CPI rise released by GSO and IMF are the average
rates against 2005)
(ADB: Annual average inflation, not the year end rate)
MONEY AND CREDIT (by IMF)
-- Broad money +25.0 +28.9 +29.7
-- Credit growth +23.6 +22.6 +31.7
EXPORT GROWTH on a year earlier
-- National Assembly +17.4 +22.8 +22.4
-- GSO +22.1 +21.6
-- ADB +18.0 +23.0 +20.0
-- IMF +15.8 +20.1 +22.5
-- World Bank *+20.0 *+22.8 *+22.5
-- Trade Ministry +20-22.0 +22.0 +14.0
IMPORT GROWTH on a year earlier
-- National Assembly +15.5 +21.4
-- GSO +20.1 +15.4
-- IMF +17.8 +18.1 +15.7
-- World Bank *+23.0 *+21.4 *+15.7
TRADE DEFICIT (BLN $) 2007 2006 2005
-- GSO 4.81 4.54
-- ADB 4.50 4.50
-- World Bank 7.98 6.31 4.65
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT GROWTH on a year earlier
-- National Assembly +17.0 +17.2
-- GSO +17.0 +17.2
-- World Bank *+17.0 *+17.0 +17.2
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE as percentage of GDP
-- Central bank -0.5
-- ADB +0.2 *-2.1 -3.6
-- World Bank *-0.5 *+1.6 +0.4
FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES in weeks of import
-- Central bank *15.0 (as at Feb) 12.0 10-12
-- IMF 12.9 11.2 9.8
-- World Bank *13.2 *13.0 9.8
FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES ($ billion)
-- Central bank 12.0
-- ADB (- gold) 11.4 9.1
-- IMF (+ gold) 15.36 11.46 8.56
-- World Bank (+ gold)*16.0 *12.5 *8.6
FOREIGN DEBT ($ billion)
-- Finance Ministry 20.0
-- World Bank 21.8 19.7 17.2
FOREIGN DEBT as percentage of GDP
-- Finance Ministry *31.0 37.3 35.8
-- World Bank 32.1 32.6 32.5
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ($ billion)
-- MPI ~20.0 10.2 5.89
Jan-April 2007: 3.52; Jan-April 2006: 1.9
-- World Bank *2.6 *2.15 *1.98
FOREIGN INDIRECT INVESTMENT ($ billion)
-- Between $3 billion and $4 billion as of March 2007, according
to the Finance Ministry estimate.
NOTE: MPI stands for the Ministry of Planning and Investment.
-- World Bank figures are actual inflows;
-- 2007 figures by the National Assembly are targets; GSO figures are its latest estimates.
-- A plan adopted by the Communist Party's Congress in April 2006 targeted average annual GDP growth of 7.5 percent to 8 percent for the 2006-2010 period, from the average growth of 7.51 percent in the five years ending in 2005.
OTHER INDICATORS
1) Non-Performing Loans -- State Bank of Vietnam Deputy Governor
Phung Khac Ke said in October 2006 that bad debt totalled 20
trillion dong, mostly in state-run firms.
The central bank said bad debt accounted for 3.2 percent of loans at the end of 2006, against 3.18 percent (or 17.8 trillion dong) in end-2005.
In March the central bank estimated Vietnam's total loans stood at 800 trillion dong ($49.7 billion).
Foreign experts said in early 2006 that about 15 percent of loans in the country was bad if international accounting standards were used, compared with 4 percent based on the Vietnamese standards. 2) Sovereign ratings:
-- Fitch Ratings (March 21, 2007): BB- for long-term foreign currency Issuer Default and BB for long-term local currency Issuer Default (outlook remained stable).
-- Moody's (March 16, 2007): Ba3 for foreign-currency bonds and Ba3 for local-currency bonds (outlook upgraded to positive from stable). Vietnam's foreign-currency country ceiling for bonds and notes remains at Ba2 (outlook stable).
-- S&P (Sept 7, 2006): BB (outlook is stable).
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