[Vnbiz] US, Vietnam scratch each other's back (formerly, "Stand up to Uncle Bully")

[Tran Dinh Hoanh]

Dear Craig & CACC,

Blagov's analysis is very much the Cold-War analysis (with some new, current
facts), which is not necessarily wrong, but it does miss some very key
elements in the current policies of both Vietnam and the US.

The current major US policy is the global War on Terrorism, which may last
for many more years (even if Bin Laden dies tomorrow).  This war is the
result of some very deep cultural conflicts between Muslim fundamentalists
and the western civilization.  These cultural conflicts are so deep that the
war will not stop any time soon.  (I will talk those cultural conflicts some
other time).

In that war, the US need allies around the world.  In the entire Southeast
Asia, if not the entire Asia, Vietnam is the most secured and stable
country, with the background of a great warrior.  Take a look around the
region.  Everyone is unstable, from Malaysia, to Indonesia, to India to
China to Thailand, Philippines, etc...  Any US military strategist will
immediately the benefit of having Vietnam as an ally in this war in the
region.  Vietnam doesn't have to do anything in the war other than making
sure that terrorists neither channel money through Vietnam nor having any
physical presence there in any form.  The fact that you have a stable and
militarily experienced ally in the region is a very big asset.

As to Vietnam, for the last 15 years or so Vietnam has a clear policy of
being friendly with everyone in the world, including China and the US.
Vietnam obviously will benefit greatly from trading and other economic ties
with the US.  And having the US as a counter-weight against China (as in the
Cold-War type of analysis) is not such a bad idea.

So everything would work out fine for both Vietnam and the US.  In fact, I
have constantly pushed for this line of analysis both in Hanoi
and Washington and in this forum very soon after 9/11/2001 until now.

About Cam Ranh bay, it is kinda emotionally sensitive and maybe a little
politically sensitive (as far as China is concerned).  But if Cam Ranh Bay
is leased to the US for some light military purposes (such as some
communication and observation base and not for massive navy and weapon
buildup), then I think  the deal would be very good for both Vietnam and the
US.  And if the US is willing to move toward that goal, I think eventually
that deal may come through.  I certainly will support such a deal.  And I
think that we should be able to convince the Vietnamese government and the
Vietnamese people of the benefit of such a deal.

Great day, Craig and all.

Hoanh
__________

On 9/27/06, Craig Stevenson <cstevenson2000 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> [Vietnam Business Forum]
>
>
>
>
>
>
> here, however, is an interesting scenario that I have been following:
>
> *US, Vietnam scratch each other's back
> *By Sergei Blagov
>
> MOSCOW - Former war adversaries and now growing trade partners, the US and
> Vietnam, are slowly but surely engaging in a strategic relationship that if
> fully consummated will have significant implications for Asia's regional
> balance of power, particularly toward counterbalancing China's growing
> military might in the region.
>
> In an unprecedented gesture toward Vietnam's Communist Party-led
> government, Admiral William Fallon, head of the US Pacific Command, traveled
> to Vietnam in mid-July to discuss the possibility of conducting joint
> military maneuvers and also urged his Vietnamese counterpart, Defense
> Minister Colonel Phung
>
> [image: China Business Big Picture]
> <http://goldsea.com/GAAN/adclick.php?bannerid=258&zoneid=117&source=&dest=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atimes.com%2Fatimes%2Fchina_business.html>
> <http://goldsea.com/GAAN/adclick.php?n=a923457d>
>
> Quang Thanh, to allow for more US naval visits to Vietnamese ports.
>
> Fallon also suggested that the two countries' navies conduct future joint
> search-and-rescue exercises at sea. Thanh did not offer an immediate reply
> and impressed upon the senior US military official that he was reluctant to
> cause any misunderstanding with regional neighbors - presumably China - yet
> he promised to pass the proposal along to top Communist Party officials.
>
> US-Vietnam military-to-military exchanges have quietly and rapidly
> intensified in recent years. On July 4, two US naval ships, the USS Patriot
> and USS Salvor, called on Vietnamese ports, the fourth such US naval visit
> to Vietnam since 2003. In the wake of the December 2004 tsunami in Southeast
> Asia, Hanoi allowed US military cargo planes unlimited flyover rights to
> assist in conducting rescue and supply missions.
>
> The two sides now cooperate closely with the United States'
> counter-terrorism campaign, counter-narcotics operations and military
> medical-training programs. Hanoi recently agreed to exchanges under the
> Pentagon's international military education and training program, and its
> senior and middle-ranking military officials now participate in professional
> development programs with US allies in the region. The US and Vietnam also
> conduct an annual defense dialogue among mid-level military officers, which
> will hold its third session this year.
>
> Early last month, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited Vietnam for
> talks aimed specifically at boosting bilateral security ties, and both
> countries agreed at those meetings to increase "exchanges at all levels of
> the military and in various ways to further strengthen the
> military-to-military relationship". As part of that agreement, two
> Vietnamese officers are now studying English in the US.
>
> Rumsfeld said after his visit that "we have no plans for access to
> military facilities in Vietnam", a diplomatic statement made clearly to
> allay China's concerns about the budding US-Vietnam military relationship
> along its southern border. The United States is widely believed to want
> access to a major Vietnamese air terminal and a deepwater port, with the
> former US military facility at Cam Ranh Bay the most obvious option.
>
> *Strategic calculus*
> China's growing military might in the region is drawing the US and Vietnam
> closer together. Engaging Vietnam is an important part of Washington's
> greater strategic realignment in Asia, which has historically relied heavily
> on military bases in South Korea and Japan to maintain a strategic balance
> of power favorable to US interests.
>
> With the United States' significant military commitments to Afghanistan
> and Iraq, the Pentagon has in recent years announced plans to redeploy some
> of its force commitments in Asia to the island of Guam. The United States'
> massive military presence in South Korea and Tokyo has at times stressed
> bilateral relations, and since the US lost access to military facilities in
> the Philippines in 1991-92, the Pentagon has sought to establish a new
> military footprint in Southeast Asia.
>
> A sizable US presence at Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay would profoundly alter
> Asia's strategic calculus. China's acquisition of anti-ship missiles and its
> buildup of ballistic missiles overtly aimed toward Taiwan also present a
> grave threat to US bases in the region. To counterbalance China's growing
> military capabilities, particularly its aggressive stance toward Taiwan, the
> US will require a joint force dependent on both naval and air power. A US
> presence at Cam Ranh Bay would also allow the US Navy to pressure China's
> fuel shipments in a future conflict, security analysts say.
>
> Vietnam obviously harbors suspicions about China's regional intentions.
> The two countries fought a brief but brutal border war in 1979, and the two
> historical antagonists supported opposite sides in Cambodia's civil war
> throughout the 1980s and into the 1990s.
>
> Notwithstanding, US access to Cam Ranh Bay is not a done deal. Hanoi has
> so far been extremely careful not to pique Beijing through its engagement
> with the US. Recent critical statements by Rumsfeld and US Secretary of
> State Condoleezza Rice have called on Beijing to "demystify" its military
> spending and clarify its strategic intentions for the region, which have
> annoyed Chinese leaders. That will make it trickier for Hanoi to convince
> Beijing that its rapprochement with the US is not actually aimed at
> strategically containing China.
>
> The strategic relationship is being promoted through vigorous,
> high-profile diplomacy. This year many top US officials have held or plan to
> hold high-level meetings with their Vietnamese counterparts, including US
> House Speaker Dennis Hastert, Rumsfeld, Rice, and President George W Bush.
> The US president is due to visit Vietnam while attending the Asia-Pacific
> Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting to be held in November in
> Hanoi.
>
> Last week, Hanoi said Rice's visit to Vietnam late this month would boost
> "mutual understanding and cooperative relations" between the two countries.
>
> "The continued exchange of delegations between Vietnam and the United
> States, including Rice's trip, will help promote mutual understanding and
> stable, long-term and win-win relations between the two countries," the
> Vietnamese Foreign Ministry said.
>
> On July 12, Hanoi publicly marked the 11th anniversary of its
> normalization of diplomatic relations with the US, which has gradually
> evolved from cooperation in locating the remains of missing-in-action US
> soldiers to recent full-blown bilateral trade agreements. Last year,
> then-prime minister Phan Van Khai met with Bush in Washington and pledged to
> raise bilateral security relations to "a new level".
>
> The more recent bilateral trade agreement, signed last month, will pave
> the way for Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization this year.
> The last remaining hurdle to full-blown normal relations is the ongoing
> debate inside the US Congress over whether to approve permanent normal trade
> relations (PNTR) with Vietnam. Some US Congress members have expressed
> reservations about Vietnam's human-rights record, particularly in relation
> to religious freedoms.
>
> The Foreign Ministry has said PNTR is the final, important step for
> complete normal bilateral relations, which presumably will allow the two
> sides' emerging multi-level strategic relationship to evolve further,
> including possible joint military maneuvers.
>
> *US fills Russia's gap*
> The US is quickly moving to fill the gap left behind by Russia, until
> recently Vietnam's most important strategic ally. Throughout the Cold War,
> Moscow provided Hanoi with generous dollops of military and economic aid.
> Tens of thousands of Vietnamese, including senior military officers, studied
> in the Soviet Union and many still speak fluent Russian.
>
> Russia has supplied Vietnam's army with most of its military hardware, and
> Moscow's armaments sales to Hanoi still amount to roughly a third of the two
> countries' trade. At the same time, military-to-military contacts have not
> developed in recent years. And Russia's joint war games with China last
> August sent a clear message to Vietnam that it needs to look elsewhere for
> future strategic assurances.
>
> With the disintegration of the Soviet Union, economic relations were badly
> strained over the massive debts Hanoi owed Moscow. Against that backdrop,
> economic ties have sagged over a period that bilateral US and Vietnam trade
> has grown exponentially. In July 2002, Russia rushed to withdraw its
> military presence at Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay, even though Moscow still had
> two more years on its 25-year contract to use the naval facilities for free.
>
>
> Officially, the Kremlin explained its Cam Ranh Bay closure as a
> cost-cutting measure, but many strategic analysts saw the move as an attempt
> to appease and please China as a new strategic partner. After the Russian
> withdrawal, Hanoi originally indicated new plans to turn Cam Ranh Bay into a
> sort of economic hub, similar to what the Philippines has attempted with its
> Subic Bay facilities. Provincial authorities now plan a number of projects,
> including a cement factory in Cam Thinh Dong, shipyards in Cam Phu and Cam
> Phuc Nam, industrial zones in Nam Cam Ranh and Bac Cam Ranh, and tourism
> areas for Bai Dai and Cam Lap.
>
> Vietnamese authorities are also mulling other projects, including
> upgrading Cam Ranh Bay's airport into an international gateway and
> rebuilding Ba Ngoi seaport into a container terminal. These plans would
> appear to indicate Hanoi's intention to scale down the military and build up
> the economic uses of Cam Ranh Bay's facilities. But if the US pushes for
> military access, and China doesn't openly demur, there are growing
> indications Vietnam would warmly entertain any and all US proposals.
>
> *Sergei Blagov covers Russia and post-Soviet states, with special
> attention to Asia-related issues. He has contributed to Asia Times Online
> since 1996 and was based in Southeast Asia from 1983 to 1997. Nova Science
> Publishers, New York, has published two of his books on Vietnamese history.
> *
>
>  --
> Tran Dinh Hoanh, LLB, JD
> Attorney of Law
> Washington DC
>
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