[Vnbiz] RE : Thai Coup D'Etat

[Nguyen Viet Dung]

Dear CACC


Whilst following the coup d'etat in Thailand, I am thinking back the one in the former Southern Vietnam at the begin of 1960s that led Pres. Ngo Dinh Diem was kicked off his power, and then killed by his military fellows. That was an old story happened 40 years ago. But the causes were much similar to what Thai generals are reasoning for their coup de main. And that is political.

More or less I would also think the nature of Thai coup d'etat is likely an  economic (and political of course) conflict between  interest groups in Thailand society, between the rich (and powerful) people - minority, not including Thaksin, and Thaksin - a billionaire - too rich enough :-) who has made alot of efforts to help the poor in rural areas - majority, whilst reducing supports to the rich in urban. General Sonthi is the one of the rich group.  How many percent of  Thai  people that hate Thaksin? May be not much. Only some generals did so. Clearly, normal soldiers even did not know that they were entering Bangkok to fight their P.M. that night. 

So far no one know the coup d'etat will be good or bad for Thai people and the country's political regime. But foreign investors would certainly hesitate to open or expand their business in Thailand, at least by the end of 2007 until a congressional election is held.

And that investors will propably move to Vietnam - a country of more safety and political stability. I do believe this.


Cheers,


Dung





Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com> wrote: 
[Vietnam Business Forum]



Dear Brother Benjaphon,
  
 Thanks for the engaging note.   I understand that many Thais appear to be happy with the coup and they believe that Thailand will be better.  With all due respect, I would like to post a reservation note.  But before I go into my discussion, I would like to tell brother Benjaphon that I really love Thai people.  The Thai is such a gentle and humble people, with a very strong Theravada Buddhist influence.  And I love Thai food.  I dream about travelling to Thailand just to eat all the time. 
  
 Now the discussion.  The general rule is that taking over a legitimate government by force is most of the time a bad thing for the country.  A legitimate government, even when it becomes corrupt, should be dealt with by legitimate means,  i.e., the law, the court, the press, the process.  Using force to overthrow a legitimate government is lawlessness.  Lawlessness breeds lawlessness and will drag the country down a slippery road, possibily of no return until a very very long time.  
  
 Of course, everyone is alleging that Thaksin is corrupt.  Assuming that he is really corrupt, the law is the way to go.  Maybe long and frustrating, but that is the only legitimate way.
  
 Are we saying that the new leaders are not corrupt, or do not have anything wrong with them?  I doubt it.  Every human being has some weakness, some mistake, some sin.  What would stop another military man to have another coup 6 months from now, because the new leader is alleged to have something wrong with him?  Then another 6 months another coup because the second new leader in turn has something wrong?  And on and on and on? 
  
 Lawlessness begets lawlessness.  That is the slippery road downward.
  
 In the meantime, the press and citizen liberty are suppressed.  That would breed even more corruption and abuse of power on the part of the government, and that in turn would breed more coups.  Please note that during the late 70's and early 80, Thailand had about one coup per year.  So my prediction is not so far fetched at all. 
  
 This has nothing to do with the Thai people's level of education or corruption or whatever.  The natural rule operates by itself:  A cow begets a cow.  A dog begets a dog.  Lawlessness begets lawlessness.

That is why the police cannot shoot and kill criminals, but has to arrest them and bring them to court.  Citizens cannot shoot and kill criminals but have to rely on the legal process.  Once force is used freely just because something or someone is wrong, the society is in the road to chaos. 
  
 Of course, every rule has exception.  In some situation a coup d'etat may be the best thing.  It usually in a case of extreme abuse of power, and the injustice is so deep, and there is no other way to improve things.  The Thaksin case is not at all close to that category.  Thailand is a democratic country with a relatively good press and legal system.  Regardless of how bad the situation is, there must be a legal process to go. 
  
 I have seen many coups d'etat in my lifetime, and rarely seen any improvement after a coup.  Usually things get worse.  And that makes sense: Lawlessness begets lawlessness.
  
 It may be too early to tell.  But I am willing to bet that Thailand is going down hill at least for the next 10 years, if not much longer.  If you disagree with me, fine.  We don't have to argue much now.  Let's give things some time to play out.  And I am saying out loud now: "Downhill." 
  
 Great day, brother Benjaphon.
  
 Hoanh
  
  
  
  
  
 On 9/22/06, Benjaphon Thuvanalin <benjaphon.th at gmail.com> wrote:  
[Vietnam Business Forum]




 

 Dear Hoanh,
  
 Just very quick idea.
  
 The coin always has 2 sides, sometime being the democracy with wrong leader cause the country enormous losses and sometime coup is not that bad when the leader does not want to take over the control. Moreover, we all know that governments are corrupted but when it come to selling the country (like what Taksin, Former Thailand Prime minister was doing) - nobody can accept that.  
 
 I have a list of more than 100 questions to Taksin which never been answered. If you want to know about what he has done please tell me.
  
 For your information, last election there was 'no vote' around 12 million.  http://www.boi.go.th/english/how/press_releases_detail.asp?id=1045 
  
 What would you do if you were him? What does it mean if the majority of educated people hate their leader so much? Also, another thing you need to know is the majority of Thais are uneducated people who could be buy out with $10-20USD easily. But I tell you what, Taksin did it better than that - tell me if you want to know more.  
  
 Lastly, if Thais do not take any action like this, Thailand will be just next Philippine or Indonesia which is even better because Vietnam will have even more chance to surpass Thailand.
  
 Best wishes,
 Ben
  
-- 
Tran Dinh Hoanh, LLB, JD
Attorney of Law
Washington DC 

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