[Vnbiz] China In Focus - Number 14

Wed Oct 25 19:18:40 PDT 2006

Dear CACC,

FYI.

Hoanh
________

From:  *Asia America Initiative <administrator at asiaamerica.org>*
Subject:  *China In Focus - Number 14*
Date:  *Tue, 24 Oct 2006 07:16:08 -0400 (EDT)*

    [image: AAI Logo]

   China In Focus - Number 14
[image: )]

       A Weekly E-Newsletter of the Asia America Initiative
         October 24, 2006

CHINA TARGETS AMERICA'S "ACUPUNCTURE
POINTS"<http://by108fd.bay108.hotmail.msn.com/cgi-bin/dasp/EN/rte___10000003.asp#article1>

     Editor: Al Santoli

       CHINA TARGETS AMERICA'S "ACUPUNCTURE POINTS"

While America remains bogged down in precarious
regional wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and faces an
unaccomodating North Korea and Iran, U.S. leaders
are reaching out to Beijing as an "ally." However,
China continues an unprecedented military offensive
buildup that principally targets the United States and
Japan.  Would Beijing risk confrontation with a
technologically advanced Power such as the United
States?

In the October 18 and 19, 2006 Asia Times Online,
Philippine Brigadier General Victor Corpus, one of the
most insightful military officers in Southeast Asia,
analyzes China's current war-fighting doctrine and
seminal alliances with Russia and Iran.  Chinese
military documents and actions show Beijing's
confidence that a future confrontation could be
fought and won through attacking America's vital
domestic and military infrastructure.  This includes
electronic and cyber communications, oil and gas
supplies, the collapse of the US dollar as well as
strategic and tactical surprise attacks on US air, sea
and space-based military capabilities.

Due to the significance and urgent insight of General
Corpus's assessment, and the high regard that the
CIF editor has for the author, the article is hereby
condensed for our readers' benefit:

        *Introduction:
*

 "Noted Chinese theorist on modern warfare, Chang
Mengxiong, compared China's form of fighting to "a
Chinese boxer with a keen knowledge of vital body
points who can bring an opponent to his knees with a
minimum of movements". It is like key acupuncture
points in ancient Chinese medicine. America should
be prepared to defend against and counter the
following types of asymmetrical strikes.

        *1. Attack on the US dollar:
*

"One of the pillars propping up US superpower status
and worldwide economic dominance is the dollar
being accepted as the predominant reserve currency.
Central banks of various countries have to stock up
dollar reserves because they can only buy their oil
requirements and other major commodities in US
dollars.  This US economic strength, however, is a
double-edged sword and can turn out to be
America's economic Achilles' heel. Significantly,
China, Russia and Iran possess the power to cause a
panicked international run on the US dollar and force
its collapse.

China is now the biggest holder of foreign exchange
reserves in the world, accumulating $941 billion as of
June 30 and expected to exceed a trillion dollars by
the end of 2006 - a first in world history. A decision
by China to shift a major portion of its reserve to the
euro or the yen or gold could trigger other central
banks to follow suit. Nobody would want to be left
behind holding a vault full of dollars rapidly turning
worthless. This type of sabotage could be strongly
reinforced by the latent anger of many countries in
the Middle East, Eurasia, Southeast Asia, Africa and
Latin America.  International opinion polls show that
many nations silently abhor the pugnacious
arrogance displayed by the lone Superpower in the
exercise of its unilateral and militaristic foreign
policies. They may be content to dump the dollar and
watch the lone Superpower squirm and collapse.

The danger of the dollar collapsing is intensified by
the mounting US current account deficit, which sky-
rocketed to $900 billion at an annual rate in the
fourth quarter of 2005. This figure is 7% of US gross
domestic product (GDP), the largest in US history.
The current account deficit reflects the imbalance of
US imports to its exports. These record deficits in
external trade and current accounts mean that the
US has to borrow from foreign lenders (mostly Japan
and China) $900 billion annually or nearly $2.5 billion
every single day to finance the gap between
payments and receipts from the rest of the world.

The International Monetary Fund has warned: "The
US is on course to increase its net external liabilities
to around 40% of its GDP within the next few years -
an unprecedented level of external debt for a large
industrial country."  Such a state of economic affairs
cannot be sustained for long, and the stability of the
dollar is put in grave danger. One push and the dollar
will plunge into free-fall. That push can come from
China, Russia or Iran.

We have seen what China can do. How can Russia or
Iran, in turn, cause a dollar downfall? Changing the
oil-purchasing currency to the Euro is one means. In
addition, on September 2, 2003, Russia and Saudi
Arabia signed an agreement on oil and gas
cooperation. Russia and the Saudis have agreed "to
exercise joint control over the dynamics of prices for
raw materials on foreign markets". The two biggest
oil and gas producers, in cooperation, say, with Iran,
could control oil production and sales to keep the
price of oil relatively high, destabilizing the
international economy.

Russia is now the world's biggest energy supplier,
surpassing Saudi Arabia in energy exports measured
in barrel oil equivalent or barrels of energy per day
[boe] (13.3 million boe per day for Russia vs 10
million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia). Russia has
the biggest gas reserves in the world. Iran, on the
other hand, runs second in the world to Russia in gas
reserves, and also ranks among the top oil producers.
If and when either Russia or Iran, or both, shift away
from a rapidly declining dollar in energy transactions,
many oil producers will follow suit. These include
Venezuela, Indonesia, Sudan, Nigeria and the Central
Asian Republics.

There is a good chance that even Saudi Arabia and
the other oil-exporting countries in the Middle East
wouldn't want to be left with fast-shrinking dollars
when the shift from petro-dollar to euro-dollar
occurs. The US will eventually be left with a dollar
that is practically worthless. The whole US economy
crushing down with it - a scene reminiscent of the
collapse of the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001.
But this crisis would be a thousand times more
devastating.

        *2.  Electro-magnetic Pulse (EMP) attack:
*

�China and Russia are two potential US adversaries
that have the capability for this kind of paralyzing
attack. An EMP attack can either come from an
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a submarine-
launched ballistic missile (SLBM), a long-range cruise
missile, or an orbiting satellite armed with a nuclear
or non-nuclear EMP warhead. A nuclear burst of one
(or more) megaton some 400 kilometers over the
central United States can blanket the whole
continental US with electro-magnetic pulse in less
than one second.

An EMP attack will damage all electrical grids on the
US mainland. It will disable computers and other
similar electronic devices with microchips. Most
banks, businesses and industries will shut down. The
entire US economy could practically grind to a halt.
Satellites within line of sight of the EMP burst will
also be damaged, adversely affecting military
command, control, communications, computers,
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
(C4ISR). Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles
will be rendered unserviceable in their silos. Anti-
ballistic missile defenses will suffer the same fate. In
short � total blackout.

If the US retaliates with  strategic missiles, China
and Russia now have the means of striking back with
submarine-launched ballistic missiles with the same or
even more devastating results. China's strategy
of "active defense" mandates: When war with the US
becomes imminent, China will not allow itself to be
targeted first. It will seize the initiative as mandated
by its doctrine by striking first. China has repeatedly
announced that it will not be the first to use nuclear
weapons. However, as an old Chinese saying
goes: "There can never be too much deception in
war."

        *3.  �Assassins� mace� vs US aircraft carriers:
*

"Aircraft carrier battle groups are the mainstay of US
military and protect commerce supremacy which is
primarily through ocean-transit. They serve as
America�s chief instrument for global power projection
and world dominance. In this capability, the US has
no equal. At the moment, the US maintains a total of
12 aircraft carrier battle groups. In comparison, China
has none.

However, China�s strategy in defeating the superior
by the inferior is shashaojian or the "assassin�s
mace". "Mace" is not only a blinding spray; it is also a
meaner and deadlier weapon, a spiked war club of
ancient times used to knock out an adversary with
one blow.  The spikes of the modern Chinese mace
may well spell the end for aircraft carriers.

The first of these spikes consists of medium- and
short-range ballistic missiles (modified and improved
DF 21s/CSS-5 and DF 15s) with terminally guided
maneuverable re-entry vehicles with circular error
probability of 10 meters. DF 21s/CSS-5s can hit slow-
moving targets at sea up to 2,500km away.

The second spike is an array of supersonic and highly
accurate cruise missiles, some with range of 300km
or more, that can be delivered by submarines,
aircraft, surface ships or even common trucks (which
are ideal for use in terrain like that of Iran along the
Persian Gulf). These supersonic cruise missiles travel
at more than twice the speed of sound (mach 2.5),
or faster than a rifle bullet. They can be armed with
conventional, anti-radiation, thermobaric, or electro-
magnetic pulse warheads, or even nuclear warheads
if need be. The Aegis missile defense system and the
Phalanx Close-in Defense weapons of the US Navy
are ineffective against these supersonic cruise
missiles.

A barrage of these cruise missiles, followed by land-
based intermediate- or short-range ballistic missiles
with terminal guidance systems, could wreak havoc
on an aircraft carrier battle group. Whether there are
seven or 15 carrier battle groups, it will not matter,
for China has enough ballistic and cruise missiles to
destroy them all.

The first and second spikes of the "assassin�s mace"
are sufficient to render the aircraft carrier battle
groups obsolete. But there is a third spike which is
equally dreadful. This is the deadly SHKVAL
or "Squall" rocket torpedo developed by Russia and
passed on to China. It is like an under-water missile.
Its high speed makes evasive maneuvers by carriers
or nuclear submarines highly difficult. It is truly a
submarine and carrier buster.

The "assassin�s mace" has still more spikes. The
fourth spike consists of extra-large, bottom-rising,
rocket-propelled sea mines laid by submarines along
the projected paths of advancing carrier battle
groups. These sea mines are designed specifically for
targeting aircraft carriers. They can be grouped in
clusters so that they will hit the carriers in barrages.

The final spike of the mace is a fleet of old fighter
aircraft (China has thousands of them) modified as
unmanned combat aerial vehicles fitted with extra
fuel tanks and armed with stand-off anti-ship
missiles. They are also packed with high explosives
so that after firing off their precision-guided anti-ship
missiles on the battle group, they will then finish their
mission by dive-bombing "kamikaze" style into their
targets.

If we now combine the mace as a means of blinding
an adversary and the mace as a spiked war club, one
can see the complete picture of how China will use
the "assassin�s mace."  Although China does not
possess a single operational aircraft carrier, it has
converted their entire navy into a "virtual aircraft
carrier" that is unsinkable and capable of devastating
aircraft carrier battle groups that the US and its
allies can muster."

        *4. Cyber attack:*

"America is the most advanced country in the world
in the field of information technology (IT). Practically
all of its industries, manufacturing, business and
finance, telecommunications, key government
services and defense establishment rely heavily on
computers and computer networks. But this heavy
dependence on computers is a double-edged sword.
It has thrust the US economy and defense
establishment ahead of all other countries; but it has
also created an Achilles' heel that can potentially
bring the superpower to its knees with a few
keystrokes on a dozen or so laptops.

China's new concept of a "people's war" includes IT
warriors, coming, not only from its military which is
more than
2-million strong.  China�s leaders have also
aggressively recruited from the general citizenry for
student and professional "patriotic hackers" to
supplement its military cyber warrior force. If we add
the hackers and information warriors from Russia,
Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, Syria and other
countries sympathetic to China, the cyber attack on
the US would be formidable, indeed.

If a major conflict erupts between China and
America, myriad computers will be engaged to hack
America's military establishment; banking system;
stock exchange; defense industries;
telecommunication system; power grids; water
system; oil and gas pipeline system; air traffic and
train traffic control systems;  ballistic missile system,
and other systems that prop up or defend the
American way of life.

        *5 Interdiction of US foreign oil
supply:*

"America is now 75% dependent on foreign imported
oil. About 23.5% of America's imported oil supply
comes from the Persian Gulf. To cut off this oil
supply, Iran can simply mine the Strait of Hormuz,
using bottom-rising sea mines. Iran has the world's
fourth-largest inventory of sea mines, after China,
Russia and the US.

Combined with sea mines, Iran can also block the
narrow strait with supersonic cruise missiles such as
Yakhonts, Moskits, Granits and Brahmos.  These
weapons are deployed on Abu Musa Island and all
along the rugged and mountainous coastline of Iran
fronting the Persian Gulf. Such action can bring
America to its knees. Not only America but Japan
(which imports 90% of its oil supply) and Europe
(which derives about 60% of its oil supply from the
Persian Gulf ) will be adversely affected.

A single blow from Iran or China or Russia, or a
combination of the three at the Strait of Hormuz can
paralyze America. In addition, Chinese and Russian
submarines can stop the flow of oil to the US and
Japan by interdicting oil tanker traffic coming from
the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. On the
other hand, US naval supremacy will have minimal
effect on China's oil supply because it is already
connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will
soon be connected to Russia and Iran as well.

If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it will surely drive
oil prices sky high. Prolonged high oil prices can, in
turn, trigger inflation in the US and a sharp decline of
the dollar, possibly even a dollar free-fall, impacting
the entire US economy and national security
system.

        *6. Diplomatic and Energy
Isolation: *

 "In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed from its
own weight, the US emerged as the sole superpower
in the world. At that crucial period, it would have
been a great opportunity for the US to establish its
global leadership. With the world's biggest economy,
its control of international financial institutions, its
huge lead in science and technology (especially
information technology) and its unequaled military
might, America could have seized the moment to
establish a truly American Century.

Unfortunately, such was not to be. If there was any
effort at the exercise of soft [economic and political]
power at all, it was minimal. In fact, it is not America
which is practicing soft power in diplomacy but a
rising power in the East - China. China has been busy
in the past decade or so exercising soft power �
economic, political, aid and bribery -- in many
countries in Africa, Latin America, Central Asia,
Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Middle East,
winning most of the countries in those regions to
Beijing�s side. Through the use of soft power, China
has created a de facto global united front under its
silent, low-key leadership, especially in African
countries that possess scarce natural resources
essential for industrial production."

     Other Free
Publications<http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=g7o4lzbab.0.uqraznbab.ndawtnbab.869&ts=S0211&p=http://www.asiaamerica.org/Publications.html>

       Quick Links...

US-China Commission
Testimony<http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=g7o4lzbab.0.vqraznbab.ndawtnbab.869&ts=S0211&p=http://www.asiaamerica.org/2005SecurityForums.html>

Development for Peace in
Sulu<http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=g7o4lzbab.0.ncgovnbab.ndawtnbab.869&ts=S0211&p=http://www.asiaamerica.org/DPIS.html>

Photo Gallery<http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=g7o4lzbab.0.mcgovnbab.ndawtnbab.869&ts=S0211&p=http://www.asiaamerica.org/Photos.html>

More About Us<http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=g7o4lzbab.0.lcgovnbab.ndawtnbab.869&ts=S0211&p=http://www.asiaamerica.org/About.html>

        email:
        administrator at asiaamerica.org

        phone:
        202.232.7020

        web:
        http://www.asiaamerica.org<http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=g7o4lzbab.0.yal8tnbab.ndawtnbab.869&ts=S0211&p=http://www.asiaamerica.org>

    *Forward email<http://ui.constantcontact.com/sa/fwtf.jsp?m=1101042221165&ea=david_laux@hotmail.com&a=1101436795782>
*

<http://ui.constantcontact.com/d.jsp?p=un&m=1101042221165&ea=david_laux@hotmail.com&se=869&t=1101436795782&lang=en&reason=F>
  Powered by
<http://www.constantcontact.com/index.jsp?cc=news04>

Asia America Initiative | 1523 16th Street, NW | Washington | DC | 20036

-- 
Tran Dinh Hoanh, LLB, JD
Attorney of Law
Washington DC
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://mail.saigon.com/pipermail/vnbiz/attachments/20061025/4525eed0/attachment.html 