[Vnbiz] the milk crisis in VN [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Oct 12 22:02:32 PDT 2006

Anh Hoanh and CACC

Vinamilk has 75% of the market share. But it's not the only one being
pretentious.

Happy reading,
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*Doanh nghiệp nào chế biến sữa tươi từ sữa bột?*

  TT - Trao đổi với* Tuổi Trẻ*, ông Nguyễn Đăng Vang - cục trưởng Cục Chăn
nuôi - cho biết hầu hết các nhà sản xuất đều dùng nguyên liệu sữa bột để sản
xuất sữa tươi<http://www.tuoitre.com.vn/Tianyon/Index.aspx?ArticleID=166193&ChannelID=3>.
Ông Vang nói:

- Trong chín nhà sản xuất sữa nước mà sản phẩm được bán dưới tên gọi sữa
tươi, chỉ có ba đơn vị sản xuất từ nguyên liệu sữa bò tươi nguyên chất nhưng
sản lượng chiếm chưa đến 2% thị phần. Các công ty còn lại - chiếm hơn 98%
thị phần - đều sử dụng sữa bột để sản xuất "sữa tươi" với tỉ lệ khác nhau,
trong đó có Vinamilk, Dutch Lady, Hà Nội Milk, Elovy, International Milk và
NutiFood.

Với Vinamilk và Dutch Lady có hệ thống thu mua sữa bò tươi trong nước nên tỉ
lệ nguyên liệu sữa bò tươi nguyên chất trong sản phẩm có cao hơn nhưng cũng
không vượt quá 30%. Có những đơn vị dùng 100% sữa bột để sản xuất "sữa tươi"
như NutiFood do đơn vị này không có hệ thống thu mua sữa bò tươi và cũng
không nhập khẩu nguyên liệu sữa tươi.

Tuy nhiên, cũng phải thừa nhận việc phải sử dụng sữa bột để sản xuất sữa
nước là khó tránh khỏi vì hiện nay nhu cầu tiêu dùng cả nước lên đến 650
triệu lít sữa, trong khi trong nước mới sản xuất được 197 triệu lít.

  Tại nhiều nước, các loại sữa nước sản xuất từ sữa bột gầy (đã tách bơ -
chất béo) chỉ dùng cho người lớn (do không có chất béo), còn trẻ em chỉ dùng
loại sữa sản xuất từ 100% sữa tươi nguyên chất.
* Nhà sản xuất sai đến mức nào khi ghi nhãn và quảng cáo là sản phẩm được
sản xuất từ nguyên liệu sữa tươi, thưa ông?

- Theo qui định về ghi nhãn trước đây, việc ghi thành phần nguyên liệu được
thực hiện theo nguyên tắc loại thành phần nào chiếm tỉ lệ nhiều hơn sẽ được
đưa lên trước và ngược lại. Thực tế hiện nay, trong mục ghi thành phần của
sản phẩm sữa nước, hầu hết các đơn vị đều đưa chữ "sữa tươi" lên trước là
không đúng.

Theo tôi, việc ghi nhãn hàng hóa đối với sản phẩm sữa nước trong thời gian
tới sẽ phải rạch ròi hơn, trung thực hơn. Sản phẩm chỉ được ghi là sữa tươi
khi nguyên liệu sản xuất là sữa bò tươi nguyên chất chiếm hơn 99%. Những sản
phẩm nào có nguyên liệu sữa bò tươi nguyên chất thấp hơn tỉ lệ nêu trên thì
không được phép sử dụng chữ "sữa tươi" trên bao bì sản phẩm, mà phải ghi rõ
sản xuất từ sữa bột. Nếu có sử dụng một phần nguyên liệu sữa bò tươi nguyên
chất cũng không được ghi chữ "sữa tươi" đứng trước sữa bột trong mục thành
phần nguyên liệu, tránh gây ngộ nhận cho người tiêu dùng.

* Theo ông, nhà sản xuất có thể nâng tỉ lệ sữa bò tươi nguyên chất trong sản
phẩm sữa tươi?

- Vấn đề này cần phải có thời gian do nguồn nguyên liệu sữa bò tươi trong
nước chưa đáp ứng được nhu cầu. Tuy nhiên, về lâu dài, chúng ta cần phải có
những biện pháp để nâng cao tỉ lệ sữa bò tươi nguyên chất trong sản phẩm sữa
nước. Có thể yêu cầu các đơn vị nâng tỉ lệ sữa bò tươi trong sản phẩm lên
mức bình quân 30%, thay vì 22% như hiện nay. Cần đặt ra lộ trình cụ thể để
thực hiện. Như vậy, sẽ buộc các nhà máy chế biến sữa lựa chọn hoặc là đẩy
mạnh thu mua nguyên liệu sữa bò tươi trong nước, hoặc nhập khẩu nguyên liệu
sữa tươi từ nước ngoài.

Hiện sữa tươi nhập khẩu về đến VN có giá khoảng 6.200 đồng/kg, chưa tính
thuế nhập khẩu (20%) và thuế VAT (10%). Cũng có thể áp đặt hạn ngạch nhập
khẩu sữa bột tương ứng với tỉ lệ lượng sữa bò tươi trong nước mà các đơn vị
đã thu mua.

On 10/13/06, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> [Vietnam Business Forum]
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Dear CACC,
>
> Another important point that I forgot to mention in my previous message is
> that while privatization should be encouraged, privatization HAS the great
> potential to entrench a monopoly.
>
> Say, a state-owned monopoly has been making great profit due to its
> monopoly status.  When it offers some stocks to the public, the stock price
> will be soaring.  But the company now is no-longer purely state-owned.  By
> all accounts, the state probably still owns a dominant share and everyone
> else owns the rest, maybe in lots of small chunks.  Good way to raise some
> capital for the company.  And the company now operates more like a
> profit-oriented private enterprise.  This should be a very good thing for
> free-market advocates (like me).
>
> Except for one small thing:  We now have a profit-oriented monopoly, which
> is a very bad thing for the economy.  In the old days, the state-owned
> monopoly sometimes cares about things other than profit, like farmer's
> decent living. Today, it cares only about profit, and maybe only short-term
> profit.  Long-term investments that may reduce the current profit margin may
> not be considered at all, since the board of directors and board of
> management are more concerned about their current seat.
>
> If several years ago, Vinamilk went ahead with its plan on promoting
> domestic fresh milk, its profit margin might not have been so attractive to
> have high stock price today. So obviously it stopped the fresh milk plan for
> a reason.  Many private companies have a short vision like that when they
> need to attract a lot of capital immediately.
>
> The problem is: Now the monopoly is acting as a purely profit oriented
> enterprise, with the monopoly power to get its ways.  This entrenched
> monopoly is really harmful to the economy and to all
> citizens (except, of course, its shareholders).
>
> And this issue is present in every single sector of the economy where we
> have a state-owned monopoly going public on the stock market.
>
> So how do we solve this problem?
>
> We avoid this type of entrenched monopoly by doing two
> things simultaneously.  On one hand, we continue pushing for privatization,
> on the other hand, we increase vigilance and sophistication in anti-trust
> management.
>
> And here is the real problem of Vietnam today:  Few people understand
> antitrust (competition) issues, not mentioning enforcing competition.  And I
> don't see the country is serious in building a competition regime, with good
> law and regulation and, more importantly, good enforcers who understand very
> well micro-economics and competition issues and who have the real power to
> enforce competition law.
>
> So we now have a serious problem in the structure of the national
> economy.  But as anyone who is experienced with Vietnam knows, most of the
> time you can't tell people to do anything in advance.  They will know it
> only when it happens to their face.  (I have talked about many things in
> advance in the period of 15 years.  My experience shows that if I say
> something, I should wait 10 years, then people will do it when things happen
> to their face).
>
> So I am not overly anxious to see any solution to this "enhanced monopoly"
> issue.  I will just wait till WTO forces things to change more drastically.
> It won't be the best scenario for Vietnamese companies then, but that is the
> nature of the game: Most people only can see as far as next week.
>
> Have a great day :-)
>
> Hoanh
>
> On 10/12/06, Tran Dinh Hoanh <tdhoanh at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Dear Dzung & CACC,
> >
> > Thanks for the note, Dzung.  We don't have conclude that the problem is
> > with Vinamilk, but we have to be able to guess logically where the problem
> > is in order to do an investigation.
> >
> > The fresh milk market is obviously not working properly.  Milk companies
> > buy fresh milk at the price lower than any place in the world and selling it
> > out at the price highest in the world.  Who would be able to do that in a
> > market?  Only a monopolist can do that.  The guy who has all the purchasing
> > and selling power.  I say "milk companies" but in deed it should be "milk
> > company," the de facto monopolist in this market.  You don't have to be an
> > economist to know.  Just walk around the street on any city, you will know
> > who is the real player.  All other companies mean very little.  Vinamilk
> > sets the tone of the market.  Other companies either follow its tone or
> > collude with it outright.
> >
> > Any who are other companies anyway?  Vinacafe is not in the same market
> > (although the tow markets may overlap here and there).  Dutch Lady is no
> > where compared to Vinamilk.  That is two.  Who else?  Even two or three is
> > still too few for a market.
> >
> > We have serious competition issue in this market.  Keep in mind that
> > Vinamilk is state-owned with tremendous advantages over the years till now.
> >
> > Don't count on its soaring stock as a benefit for the country.
> > Monopolies ALWAYS have soaring stock, because  they have the power to
> > squeeze the market to death, to reap incredible profits.  When an oil
> > monopoly has soaring stock, it means ALL drivers have to pay up their nose
> > to finance the monopoly's stock profit.
> >
> > If I am the anti-trust chief, I would definitely ask my lawyers and
> > economists to open an investigation into the fresh milk market with the
> > potential theory of conspiracy (or unilateral monopolistic behavior)
> > to keep domestic fresh milk out of the market.
> >
> > (Several years ago, there were talks that Vinamilk encouraged farmers to
> > raise milk cows, and many farmers were doing that, but then Vinamlik backed
> > out of its promise to buy, and a lots of farmers lost their shirt then.
> > That was the beginning of a new strategy of ignoring domestic fresh milk).
> >
> > While I point out Vinamilk as the number-one target of investigation (if
> > someone cares to open an investigation), the issue is much deeper.  It is
> > the apparent distortion of the market that has given too much protection and
> > power to its state-owned monopoly.  If you like to make profit on Vinamilk's
> > stock, fine.  But if you care about the country, you want to ask:  Do we
> > have great market distortions in this fresh-milk market?  Why?
> >
> > Anh here is another thing for the people who don't care about farmers
> > and the country and only care about some quick bucks from Vinamilk stock:
> > WTO may change the entire scene.  I am not sure that ice cream and dairy
> > related products may be considered "agriculture products" which tend to give
> > Vietnam some protection from international competition.  But if they are
> > open for all out war, Vinamilk will be in serious trouble.  American and
> > Australian ice cream, with much better taste than Vinamilk products because
> > they are made with fresh milk, may be able to come in Vietnam at a price
> > that will send Vinamilk to its sickbay.
> >
> > I realize that Vinamilk has its intensive network of distribution.
> > By then, its strategy could be using its dominant leverage in its
> > distribution network to distort the market, by telling retailers: "If you
> > sell our products you cannot sell any product of any of our competitors."
> > Then it could be another serious antitrust issue.  (If you are not
> > monopolist you can require your retailer to sell only your products.  But
> > when you have the monopoly power, saying that could be an unfair-competition
> > violation).
> >
> > I am spelling out all the potential issues, potential culprits and
> > potential market maneuvers for whoever cares to examine these major
> > issues.  Or you guys can just sit there and will see them later,
> > when everything unfolds a couple of years from now.
> >
> > Have a great day, Dzung and all.
> >
> > Hoanh
> >
> >
> > --
> > Tran Dinh Hoanh, LLB, JD
> > Attorney of Law
> > Washington DC
> >
>
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