[Vnbiz] EIU Vietnam Economy Demographic profile

[Craig Stevenson]

Vietnam economy: Demographic profile
   September 12th 2006
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   COUNTRY BRIEFING

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  Demographic profile   2000 2005 2010 Population (m) Total 77.6 83.1 88.5
 Male 38.3 41.2 43.9  Female 39.3 42.0 44.6 Age profile (% of total
population)  0-14 32.3 28.6 26.0  15-64 62.2 65.7 68.4  65+ 5.5 5.7
5.6 Young-age
dependency ratio 0.52 0.44 0.38 Old-age dependency ratio 0.09 0.09
0.08 Working-age
population (m) 48.3 54.6 60.6 Urbanisation (% of total) 24.1 26.7 29.4 Labour
force (m) 38.5 43.6 48.7         Period averages   2001-05 2006-10 Population
growth (%)   1.4 1.3 Working-age population growth (%)   2.5 2.1 Labour
force growth (%)   2.5 2.2 Crude birth rate (per 1,000)   19.2 19.3 Crude
death rate (per 1,000)   6.1 6.0 Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live
births)   30.9 26.4 Life expectancy at birth (years)  Male   67.6 71.5
 Female   72.7 74.2  Average   70.1 72.9 Sources: UN population projections,
medium variant; International Labour Organisation (ILO), labour force
projections; Economist Intelligence Unit estimates and forecasts.

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The population is forecast to continue growing at a steady rate of around
1.3% a year during the forecast period, and as a result the total population
will reach 88.5m by 2010, up from 83.1m in 2005. The government has softened
its "one or two child" family planning policy, which penalised families with
more than one or two children, particularly those in the public sector.
However, as the government's efforts to boost awareness and usage of various
forms of contraception have been successful, there is unlikely to be a sharp
upturn in birth rates.

Population growth remains steady, but the urban population rises rapidly

The urban population will continue to grow rapidly, as people migrate to the
cities in search of work. Urban population growth has been around 3.5% a
year in recent years, such that by 2005 around 27% of the population resided
in urban areas, up from 24.7% in 2001. As a legacy of the rapid population
growth of two decades ago, the labour force is rising fairly rapidly and
will total nearly 49m by 2010. The urban unemployment rate was 5.6% in 2004,
down from 5.8% in 2003; the rates in the largest cities were somewhat
higher, at 6.5% in Hanoi, and 6.4% in Haiphong and Ho Chi Minh City. By
contrast, the unemployment rate in rural Vietnam was just 1.1%, reflecting
the fact that the rural population cannot afford to be unemployed. However,
rural workers are generally underemployed, busy in some seasons, and idle in
others.

Poverty rates fall and health standards improve

Strong economic growth has contributed to the reduction in poverty in recent
years, and with the support of foreign donors, the government is likely to
continue to oversee falling rates of poverty. According to the latest data
available from the Government Statistics Office, the national poverty rate
fell to 24.1% in 2003-04 from 28.9% in 2001-02, based on a poverty line that
would allow a household to buy 2,100 calories worth of food per person daily
and provide for basic needs such as shelter and clothing. Health standards
will also improve in 2006-10 compared with 2001-05, as people can afford to
devote greater resources to healthcare in line with rising average incomes
per head. There will also be greater awareness of medical problems and
available treatments. As a result of these trends, life expectancy rates for
both males and females will rise.

The government is finally facing up to the challenge of containing the
spread of HIV/AIDS. It had been slow to react, in part because of a low
(although rising) prevalence rate, and in part because of the hard line it
has taken towards drug addicts (who constitute more than one-half of HIV
patients). The government has now established an HIV/AIDS prevention
department within the Ministry of Health, and passed a decree punishing
anyone found discriminating against those with the virus. Officially, about
45 new HIV/AIDS cases are identified daily, and by late 2005 around 104,000
people were HIV-positive, of which 17,200 had AIDS. Other estimates,
however, indicate that the actual number of those infected is twice as high.
The Economist Intelligence Unit
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