[Vnbiz] Vietnam Interest Rate Forecast

[Craig Stevenson]

Vietnam: Interest rate forecast
   September 14th 2006 |
Archive<http://www.viewswire.com.ezproxy.umuc.edu/index.asp?layout=VWCategoryVW3&region_id=420000442&channel_id=200004020&country_id=1010000301&category_id=430004043>
 Printer version<http://www.viewswire.com.ezproxy.umuc.edu/index.asp?layout=VWPrintVW3&article_id=1241115109&printer=printer>

   COUNTRY BRIEFING

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Nominal lending rate 13.2 13.5 12.0 11.0 10.5 Real
lending rate 5.3 7.6 6.8 6.7 6.5

Download the numbers in
Excel<http://www.viewswire.com.ezproxy.umuc.edu/report_dl.asp?mode=fi&fi=IRF_IRFVN_MAIN_20060914T000000_0001_CSV.CSV>
    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Nominal deposit rate 9.0 9.2 8.0 7.8 7.5 Real
deposit rate 1.39 3.50 2.94 3.60 3.60

Download the numbers in
Excel<http://www.viewswire.com.ezproxy.umuc.edu/report_dl.asp?mode=fi&fi=IRF_IRFVN_MAIN_20060914T000000_0002_CSV.CSV>
    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Nominal money market rate 6.0 6.5 6.0 5.8 5.5 Real
money market rate -1.40 0.94 1.03 1.68 1.68

Download the numbers in
Excel<http://www.viewswire.com.ezproxy.umuc.edu/report_dl.asp?mode=fi&fi=IRF_IRFVN_MAIN_20060914T000000_0003_CSV.CSV>

MONETARY POLICY

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV, the central bank) has kept its leading
policy indicator interest rate, the base annual interest rate for savings in
dong, unchanged since raising it from 7.8% to 8.25% in December 2005.
However, as commercial banks are competing strongly for loanable funds,
market interest rates are continuing to rise, and this is contributing to a
steady slowdown in the pace of growth in domestic credit. However, there are
still concerns that domestic credit is expanding at an unsustainable pace.
Therefore, assuming that the authorities adhere to their promises to the IMF
to rein in credit growth, the SBV could move to tighten monetary conditions
again in the near future, albeit only slightly.

GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Interest rates (%)           US$ 3-month
commercial paper rate 5.1 4.8 5.3 5.5 5.5 US$ 3-month Libor 5.2 4.9 5.3 5.6
5.6 Yen 2-month private bill rate 0.23 1.13 2.00 2.25 2.50 Euro 3-month
interbank
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://mail.saigon.com/pipermail/vnbiz/attachments/20061003/63de7e6e/attachment-0001.html