[Vnbiz] Economist Intelligence Unit Asia Forecast

[Craig Stevenson]

Asia: Country forecast summary
   October 2nd 2006

   COUNTRY VIEW

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

Political outlook

   - Shinzo Abe, Japan's new prime minister, will face his first national
   electoral test in mid-2007, when the next upper house election will be held.
   His party, the Liberal Democratic Party, is, however, not expected to fare
   well. South Korea's president, Roh Moo-hyun, will increasingly lose
   political authority as the next presidential election, due at end-2007,
   draws closer. Chinese politics will be dominated by the next Chinese
   Communist Party congress, which will be held in October 2007. Following the
   military coup in Thailand in September, the outlook for the next general
   election, which is provisionally planned for October 2007, is highly
   uncertain. India's Congress-led government may call an early general
   election.

Economic outlook

   - Japan's economic recovery will continue to deepen, but South Korea's
   looks increasingly fragile. Political considerations will prevent the
   Chinese government from taking measures to achieve a significant slowdown in
   economic growth over the short term. ASEAN will continue to grow quickly,
   with Vietnam expanding most rapidly. The prospects for growth in India also
   look good, with the services sector likely to continue to perform strongly.

  Regional trends   2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Population (m) 3,518 3,555
3,592 3,630 3,664 3,699 Total GDP (US$ bn at market exchange rates) 10,734
11,454 12,780 13,806 14,757 15,736 Total GDP excl Japan (US$ bn) 6,174 6,821
7,450 8,139 8,847 9,592 GDP growth (%) 4.7 5.0 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.9 GDP growth
excl Japan (%) 6.6 6.7 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.7 Inflation (av; %) 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7
2.6 Inflation excl Japan (av; %) 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3 Current-account
balance (US$ bn) 364.0 345.5 341.0 357.9 330.1 301.8 Current-account balance
excl Japan (US$ bn) 198.2 170.0 137.3 136.6 102.7 78.4
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