[Vnbiz] Young Vietnamese look to future: Ideas for HOW!!!

[Shane Wall]

Dear CACC,
    Good article and thank you Phan Tai. However, I see a sadder side - 
the rich/poor divide. This is happening BIG-TIME in China right now, and 
causing great social chaos problems (which you don't hear about unless 
you know how to look). I am afraid this could happen here too.

    Of course it is great that Vietnam is growing strongly, but we must 
also pay attention to WHO is getting the benefits of this growth? I can 
tell you that it IS NOT my wife's rice-growing family in Tay Ninh. It is 
people in the cities or around industrial parks/zones. These seem to be 
the only places I can see which are growing by about 8% - and the vast 
majority of people (like China) DON'T live in those areas.

    My only hope of a safe, peaceful and successful transition to a 
truly equitable market economy is that the strength of each individual 
Vietnamese person's Familial Piety will lessen the impact by diverting 
money from the rich cities (via family connections) to the poorer 
countryside.

    To show you that I "put my money where my mouth is" = do what I say, 
I invest my money in my wife's family. It's 'strictly' business (except 
for Grandma, she gets to share some of my profits because she has no 
assets). I loan them the capital, based on my assessment of their idea, 
then they pay me back + interest. Just like a bank, only I can trust 
them and they now trust me for my words.

    I know it works. Although it has only been 2 years, one of my wife's 
uncles is now raising 10 cattle (with a breeding program that I 'nudged' 
him towards). Whereas previously he could only buy 1-2 calves (no cash 
for any more than that), spend 2-4 years raising them and then sell 
them, now he spends a little more, buys 1 cow 'in-calf' per year, raises 
all of them and keeps his breeding stock. He is an honest and 
hardworking man. He doesn't have much education, only high school, but 
is quite quick to understand - or challenge - my suggestions. I think he 
is just a typical rural Vietnamese person: not a lot of education (but 
enough to read and write - the Government can be very, very proud about 
that, not many job prospects (unskilled), and almost no way to get 
enough capital to try out any business ideas he has.

    Of course there is another side. Another uncle, the "cow-guy's" 
older brother, grows rice in Nhung's hamlet. He asked if I could lend 
him some money to build a new house. I am very, very sympathetic to the 
idea because his family now live in a tin-roof, wooden-slab hut with a 
dirt floor, that is too small and riven with mosquitoes (I was born in a 
similar "structure" in rural Australia in 1963). However, I said no. My 
reasoning to him was simple (from a "bank/business" perspective): "I 
want you to guarantee you can pay me back the money I lend you, and the 
interest I ask (0.5%)". He agreed. However, I still did not lend him the 
money. I asked him a relevant question: :"If you have this new house and 
the rice paddies you have now, how will that benefit your children when 
you aren't here anymore? What will be more productive for their futures? 
A new house or more paddy fields?" "Smart as a tack", he understood my 
'message' and almost immediately said, "OK, can you lend me some money 
to buy more paddy land? Then I can build my own house." Of course I said 
yes. I explained that in my thinking, my job as a father is to give my 
children the opportunities and assets which will give them the attitudes 
intentions to use the assets I have left them to create the same 
opportunities for their own children - and they must do the same!

    Of course I want some return on my money. Hey, I am risking my own 
hard-earned money from my own pocket, I want some reward for taking on 
that risk! The 2 above situations were negotiated in front of the family 
(read Grandma), so there is some security in that. Ditto payments and 
repayments/profits - transparent!

    I really would like some opinions from my Vietnamese CACC about what 
I am doing here. Is it a good thing to do? Is there something I don't 
understand? Am I being too 'harsh' - note that all of the personal 
relationships within the family have not changed at all, there is 
absolutely no animosity.


Cheers,
Shane


Phan, Tai wrote:
> [ Vietnam Business Forum ]
> 
> Young Vietnamese look to future  
> 
> BBCNEWS - 11/27/06
> 
> Vietnam is shaking off the vestiges of its war-wracked past, and achieving rapid economic growth. In the first of a series of reports, the BBC's Kate McGeown meets a new generation of young, outward-looking Vietnamese. 
> Thirty-year-old Alan Duong owns a chain of shops in central Hanoi, selling up-market clothes and furnishings. 
> 
>  
> Alan Duong specialises in putting a modern twist on traditional styles  
> 
> A professional fashion designer, she speaks fluent English, travels to trade fairs around the world and is part of Vietnam's new generation of modern, successful entrepreneurs. 
> 
> Like 60% of the country's 83 million people, Alan was born after the Vietnam War. And she shows little sign of being adversely affected by her nation's turbulent past. 
> 
> "Vietnam has a really bright future," she said. "It's a great place to do business, and it's an exciting place to live and work right now." 
> 
> That sense of change is borne out by the statistics. The economy has grown by nearly 8% a year in the past five years, a feat only rivalled in Asia by China. 
> 
> In 1993, 58% of the population was classified as being under the internationally-accepted poverty line, but that figure had fallen to less than 20% by 2004. 
> 
> "It's like a completely different country from when I was here in the mid-1990s," said World Bank economist Carrie Turk. 
> 
> When she first arrived in Vietnam, Ms Turk had to fly to Bangkok for items such as toiletries. But now Hanoi is home to luxury boutiques, wi-fi cafes and world-class restaurants. 
> 
>   
> 
> 
> In pictures: Old and new  
> "It's an extraordinary growth by global standards - and it's quite rare to find anyone in Vietnam who will say they're not better off now than they were 10 years ago," she said. 
> 
> That includes poorer Vietnamese people, like Nguyen Thi Ha, who lives with her husband in a village 30km away from Hanoi. 
> 
> She comes into the centre every few weeks to sell the papayas and bananas she grows on her land, earning about 400,000 dong ($25) from each trip. 
> 
> "I feel hopeful about the future," she said. "I still have a hard life, but it's much better than it was in the past." 
> 
> "We now have a TV, and the next thing I want to get is a telephone." 
> 
> State to private transition 
> 
> Vietnam's hosting of a recent Asia-Pacific summit in Hanoi, and its acceptance as a member of the World Trade Organization, have put the spotlight on this growing prosperity - and brought the country out of the shadow of its huge Chinese neighbour. 
> 
>  
> Nguyen Thi Ha wants to buy a mobile phone 
> 
> But Vietnam has actually been transforming itself for the past 20 years - gradually at first and now much more rapidly. 
> 
> Nguyen Vinh Tien, a 33-year-old architect, has watched these changes closely. 
> 
> A few decades ago, everything was owned by the state. Even when Tien first started his job in the mid 1990s, he had to work predominantly for the government because there were few opportunities in the private sector. 
> 
> "Now the private market is just as powerful," he said, describing some of the hotels, factories and industrial zones that his business is helping to build. 
> 
> Vietnam is not just changing economically, though. It is also changing socially, with traditionally conservative attitudes gradually breaking down. 
> 
> Alan Duong's fashion business would have been impossible 20 or 30 years ago. "Being a model used to be seen by a lot of older Vietnamese as almost as bad as selling your body," she said. 
> 
> 
> Ambitions are changing too. "Until recently, parents wanted their children to work for government companies, but now young people want to work for dynamic international businesses," said Nguyen Vinh Tien. 
> 
> Talk of political change, though, does not seem to be on most young people's agendas. 
> 
> While a few brave dissidents do protest about human rights and political freedoms, their actions are clamped down on by the authorities and the majority of Vietnamese appear unmoved by their concerns. 
> 
> "Nobody really cares much about politics," said Alan. "Of course we hope the government will support us in what we do, but day-to-day politics is not something we think about really." 
> 
> Teething problems 
> 
> For poorer people, the recent economic changes mean rapid urbanisation and large-scale migration from the countryside to the cities. 
> 
>  
> Pham Thi Diep came to Hanoi to give a better life to her children 
> 
> Pham Thi Diep recently left her home province of Ha Nam to sell bread on the streets of the capital. She says she misses her children back home, but added: "At least now I can send them to school." 
> 
> While most poor people will benefit from the new economic climate, some will benefit far more than others, according to Le Dang Doanh, a senior Vietnamese economist. 
> 
> As agricultural land is taken over for industrial use, people living in these areas will become more vulnerable - especially those who are old, uneducated or infirm. 
> 
> And according to World Bank estimates, poverty levels in certain pockets of Vietnam - specifically in ethnic minority highland areas - are falling far more slowly than in the rest of the country. 
> 
> But despite these teething problems, there is little doubt that most Vietnamese people are optimistic about the future. 
> 
> "The dream of young people in the past was to satisfy their boss, or become a member of the Community Party - it was the dream of the servant," said Nguyen Vinh Tren. 
> 
> "Now people want to speak English and French, earn lots of money and live an international lifestyle." 
>  
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-- 
Shane
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