[Vacets-local-dc] ["If you come to a fork in the road, take it!"]

[Hai Tran]

"If you come to a fork in the road, take it."
-Yogi Bera

 
Yogi Bera's aphorism should have a special ring to the Prime Minister of communist Vietnam, Mr. Phan Van Khai, who is visiting the U.S. next week, from June 19 to 25. He will meet with President George W. Bush on June 21. What they discuss and agree may have long term consequences for both countries because Vietnam is now at a fork in its road and its choice will speak volume about the future of the country and future generations to come.
 
If Vietnam turns left, it encounters China. Since the resolution of the Cambodia issue in 1989, China's influence has been on the rise, culminating in the two border treaties in 1999 and 2000, still unpublicized, that Vietnam ceded hundreds of kilometers square of land and thousands of kilometers square of sea territories. These treaties caused widespread disenchantment with the communist leadership in Hanoi and the party; several dissidents ares still in jail after calling attention to the loss of famous and familiar geographical familiar sites like the Nam Quan Gate and Ban Gioc Fall. The killing of 8 Vietnamese fishermen by Chinese naval troops in January and Vietnam's feeble response afterward, have reduced the Vietnamese Communist Party reputation to shredders.
 
The Chinese have not only dominated Vietnam politically, it has also destroyed Vietnam's domestic industries of consumer goods, mostly household utensils and low quality textile products. Every day, convoys of military trucks or personal vehicles are transporting cheap contrabands and pirated goods from the Chinese border in the north to Hanoi for further distribution across the countries. Vietnam has also imported large quantities of chemicals from China to for use in farming. Export to China, unfortunately, take the form of young girls to satisfy the need of Chinese young men who cannot find a wife in China  as a result of the one-child policy of the Chinese Communist Party; other exports include agricultural products and rubber, raw materials for Chinese development. Chinese influence is now much more heavily felt in literature, rental movies, translated novels, etc.
 
The end result of this road will be the loss of Vietnam as we know it to the Chinese: Vietnam will revert to the vassal status of tow thousand years ago. The VCP may still be in power under the protection of the Chinese communists but they will be held responsible for it.
 
If Vietnam turns right, it will face the West. And America is the immediate encounter. After ten years of resumed diplomatic relations, trade could be considered the most dynamic and successful exchange with around 800 million dollars in 2001 to about 6.4 billion in 2005. America is Vietnam's biggest market for sea foods, garment and leather products, agricultural processed foods, and crude oil. Furthermore, overseas Vietnamese, mostly from the U.S. have sent home each rear around 3 billion dollars, nearly 10% of Vietnam GDP, without any voice in the political and social policies of the country. Closer relations with America will also enhance its political standing in the region and contribute to the stability of commerce as demands for energy and trade will grow greatly during the next few decades. As it currently stands, the U.S. will not do anything in the face of Chinese intimidation of Vietnam, militarily or otherwise.
 
The European countries and Japan have also been a large market for Vietnamese exports and they have accounted for large number of tourists every year, contributing to the 2.5 billion dollars to state coffers from tourism.  
If Vietnam takes this choice, the VP will have to give up, sooner or later, its monopolyly of political power and economic exploitations. And it will have to abandon its governing measures of thought control and harsh treatment of political dissent, violations of religious freedom, restrictions of freedom of information and expression, etc. In the age of the Internet and information explosion, the people have gained knowledge of many areas considered absolute taboos just ten years ago, i.e., Ho Chi Minh and his personal life, the VP and itsdisastrouss policies of land reform in 1953-1956, the persecution of artists and writers in North Vietnam in 1956-1958 (as a verbatim copy of the Chinese policy of "Let Hundred Flowers Bloom), the massacre of more than 3,000 civilians in Hue during the 1968 Tet Offensive. Many party stalwarts and war veterans have voiced objections to the heavy handed approach of the party in any matter touch their power. And the VCP's absolute power thelastt 50
 years in Vietnam have resulted in a rampant, entrenched, systemic form of corruption that Transparency International ranked Vietnam as one the 5 most corrupt countries in the world. Since the VCP exerts abosulute control of the media, the disenchanting sentiments are expressed through foreign web sites and media outlets and then fed back into Vietnam. But people now know.
 
The small price the VP has to pay in choosing democratization will allow it to continue to exist as one on the political parties in a democratic Vietnam. The gain is the salvation of Vietnam as an independent, free and democratic countries. Vietnam will fit in better with the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN), the region, and the world. It makes no sense in continuing to tout Marxism-Leninism in Vietnam whereas it was discarded to the trash heap of history in its birthplace, the Soviet Union, and the Chinese are not even repeating it any more today.
 
So, which choice are they going to take? Lose the country or give up some powers!
 
 
Hai Tran
Falls Church, VA





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